"The postponement of the Route du Rhum start from Sunday to Wednesday afternoon at 2.15 pm has given the skippers more time to prepare. But they are by no means out of the woods. Although the situation at the exit of the channel will indeed be better, they will still be confronted with at least two fronts bringing winds of 40 to 50 knots and heavy seas!
The North Atlantic is very active in terms of weather these days. Deep areas of low pressure associated with weather fronts are moving from Greenland towards Ireland and on to Scotland. Their influence extends quite far south, the wind map for Thursday shows a deep trough reaching as far as the Azores and even further south. This does not bode well.
50 knots of wind in the gusts
With southerly winds prevailing on the east side of the trough during the first days of the race, the competitors have no other option than to sail westwards after leaving the English Channel and, if they follow the routing, even a little to the north-west. The skippers of the Class 40 will be confronted with the first weather front on Friday morning, which will bring 40 knots of wind and more, combined with a significant wave height of a good five metres and cross seas created by the swell from the west and wind waves from the south. For the Ultim trimarans and the Imocas, this will happen even earlier and somewhat more violently, with winds of over 50 knots in gusts.
Even after the front had passed, the winds from the south-west remained predominant and quickly turned south again. The next weather front follows less than 24 hours after the first, with storms of the same intensity and large swell. Immediately afterwards, the wind will shift to the west, allowing skippers to start heading south.
Is there any way to escape these harsh conditions? Not really!
The only possibility is that after passing the traffic separation scheme in the north-west of Brittany, they will sail close to the wind to meet the two fronts a few degrees further south with around five to eight knots less wind and correspondingly smaller waves. But even that will be a tough battle.
Another problem is the weather development when the fleet passes the Azores: The question is what will happen with the Azores high. In the last few days, the forecasts have shown a nice high slightly west of the Azores with well-established trade winds south of it.
However, according to the latest weather models used in the routing software, the situation has changed quite a bit: The Azores high has moved further east (ECMWF model) or lost its shape (GFS model). This would mean a slow crossing of the high pressure area to get into the trade winds.
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This year's Route de Rhum will definitely be a big challenge with strong winds and high seas in the first few days of the race. Will the skippers follow the route that passes to the west of the Azores? I don't know. A lot will depend on the forecast position of the Azores High and the possibility of getting into the trade winds, as well as the decision to take it easy on the boat.
Are the timings for the race (6 to 7 days for Ultims, 11 days for Imocas and 15 days for Class 40) to Guadeloupe realistic? Probably not, as the routings underestimate the effects of rough seas during the first leg of the race. Let's wait and see, and wish the sailors 'fair winds' and good seas!"
Jure Jerman, Dorado Sail
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More about the Route du Rhum:
- Route du Rhum: All information about the start of the transatlantic regatta
- Route du Rhum: These are Boris Herrmann's opponents
- Route du Rhum: A childhood dream comes true for top favourite Caudrelier
- Route du Rhum: Interview with Boris Herrmann about his chances of winning
- Route du Rhum: We take you to the coolest race village in the sailing world!
- "Malizia - Seaexplorer": "After the Route du Rhum, we know exactly where we stand"
