The Ocean Race: Is there enough "petrol in the tank" for Malizia's victory in Itajaí?

Before we get into the subject, perhaps a warning is in order: we're going to speculate a little below. Firstly, to channel the tension that makes us all prisoners of the tracker and every little WhatsApp message from Team Malizia. Secondly, because there are no certainties at the moment anyway, just like before the equally close finish of stage two.

In fact, there is no navigator, weather forecaster or offshore professional who would currently publicly announce whether Team Malizia or Team Holcim - PRB will win. The outcome of the queen's stage is simply too open after well over 14,000 nautical miles sailed. Why, see below.

Now to the initial question: Is that enough? Is a 30 to 40 mile lead enough to cross the line first with a remaining distance of around 250 miles?

There are quite a few observers in ocean racing who, in similar constellations, are already beginning to proclaim the probable winner. In fact, some consider a race (not this one, mind you!) to be over even with a smaller lead.

Ten per cent of the remaining distance as a lead is statistically a reasonably good indicator of who will end up in front when two (or more) boats are sailing in the same weather system.

However, this rule of thumb is just that - a rough guide. And it dates back to the days when wings were only considered an indispensable component for aeroplanes or overpowered fast ferries. In the relatively new era of foiling Imocas, and even more so in the latest generation, this no longer applies.

This is because the difference in speed in the transition between planing and semi-planing mode is so extreme that a 30-mile lead can be wiped out in just a few hours - when one boat is not yet on the foils and sailing at 13 or 14 knots, while the other is already on the leeward wing and logging 17 or 18 knots.

This is not the case at the moment because there is enough wind at the edge of the storm depression, that shook the teams so brutally yesterday. According to the exocet data of "Malizia - Seaexplorer", which can be constantly updated on the team website, it is currently blowing at around 30 knots from astern, which is more than enough for foiling. In the confused swell, it's more a question of not letting the boat get too fast.

Of course, the wind will slowly but steadily decrease in the coming hours. How much depends on how quickly Boris Herrmann and his crew make progress northwards. The faster, the better, because then the breeze will reach just before the entrance to Itajaí. On the other hand - as always - it also depends on the whims of nature and how well the forecasts reflect the actual development.

In other words, there are scenarios in which the ten per cent rule applies to a victory for Team Malizia, especially if the crew put a few extra miles between themselves and "Holcim - PRB", adding a few extra litres to the fuel tank, so to speak.

But it could still get very tight - if Kevin Escoffier is able to utilise the strength of his Verdier design in the light winds of the final night.

Malizia's co-skipper Will Harris wrote to us this morning via WhatsApp when asked if it was enough: "I was thinking the same thing last night when we were 38 nautical miles ahead with 380 miles to go."

Then he sent another message: "However, I don't think I'll start breathing normally again until our lead is 50 per cent."

We're not there yet, but, hey: it still looks kind of good ...!

PS: Since midday CEST today, the tracker is no longer updated every hour, but every five minutes. However, that doesn't make the tension any less now ... 😉