El Niño expected: Calmer Atlantic, extremely stormy Pacific

For crews planning a Caribbean season, the current weather forecasts can be good news. With around 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic is expected to be below average in 2026. This is due to a developing El Niño, which inhibits hurricane formation in the tropical North Atlantic. However, the same climate factor is fuelling typhoon activity in the northwest Pacific - an area around Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan. However, the classic Pacific sailing routes along the barefoot route are just as unaffected as the North and Baltic Seas.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon in the Pacific that occurs every two to seven years and has a global impact on weather and ocean currents. Normally, trade winds blow the warm surface water from the South American coast westwards to Asia, while cold, nutrient-rich deep water rises off Peru. During an El Niño, these winds weaken or even reverse. The warm water flows back eastwards and the sea surface in the central and eastern Pacific becomes unusually warm.

This temperature change influences air circulation worldwide. In the Atlantic, El Niño leads to cooler waters and more wind shear - unfavourable conditions for hurricanes. In the north-west Pacific, on the other hand, the same effect favours the formation of typhoons. The name "El Niño" (Spanish for "the Christ child") comes from Peruvian fishermen who often observed the phenomenon around Christmas when their fishing grounds suddenly disappeared.

More favourable prospects for Caribbean sailors

El Niño phases shift the conditions in the Atlantic basin, with cooler waters and more vertical wind shear - not an ideal environment for tropical systems. In any case, most sailors use the time before or after the hurricane season to cross the Atlantic. This is also the starting point for the ARC 2026 on 22 November from Las PalmasThe hurricane season is officially due to end on 30 November. By this time, the trade winds have already established themselves and the risk of storms is minimal.

However, anyone spending the summer season in the Caribbean can do so in 2026 with a statistically lower risk. But beware: even individual storms can cause considerable damage. Therefore, despite the weakened forecasts, hurricane moorings south of the storm belt should be sought out: Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao, Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago are outside the hurricane belt. So-called hurricane holes such as Le Marin on Martinique or Rodney Bay Marina on Saint Lucia offer relative safety. The hurricane clause of many insurance policies specifies the measures to be taken in the event of a predicted hurricane.

Pacific: More typhoons - but away from the sailing routes

In the north-west Pacific, 18 typhoons are expected, 11 of them intense - 25 per cent above the historical average. Typhoon tracks under El Niño conditions tend to run further north-east than usual. This increased activity mainly affects the waters around Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan.

However, increased cyclone activity is not expected on the classic barefoot route. The 2025-26 South Pacific cyclone season was already the least active since records began, with only two tropical cyclones. Specific forecasts for the next season (November 2026 to April 2027) are not yet available, but current conditions do not indicate exceptional activity. As usual, sailors should avoid the cyclone season from November to April and either stay in safe harbour or already be in New Zealand.

After two devastating hurricane years, the forecast lets us breathe a sigh of relief

The 2025 hurricane season brought three Category 5 hurricanes - the second-highest number since records began. Among them, Melissa was one of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record, with 185 mph (295 km/h) sustained winds. The storm devastated western Jamaica, causing damage totalling 8.8 billion dollars, according to the World Bank. Major harbours and marinas suffered total or near-total structural damage. The availability of berths is classified as unreliable for the foreseeable future.

The year 2024 was also extremely active with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. The economic losses were estimated at over 140 billion dollars, accompanied by 378 fatalities. Beryl became the earliest Category 5 storm ever recordedHelene claimed 248 lives and caused 78.7 billion dollars in damage, while Milton developed from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours.

All three storms were so destructive that the World Meteorological Organisation removed their names from the rotating list of names to be given to storms. This is only done for particularly devastating storms to avoid confusion in research and insurance documentation and out of respect for the victims. These names are never used again for new storms and thus remain part of weather history.

The forecast of only 2 major hurricanes for 2026 compared to 4 in 2025 and 5 in 2024 is therefore welcome news for the region.

This might also interest you:

Hurricane heading for Europe: the changing storm climate - Some of these weather systems also reach the coasts of Europe.

Seamanship: Storm in the harbour - how to secure your yacht (YACHT) - Practical tips on mooring correctly and preparing for storms in the harbour

Apps for sailing: The top 10 weather and routing programmes (YACHT) - The best weather apps for the 2026 season

The insurance question: protection is not possible everywhere

In addition to your own safety, the question of insurance is a decisive factor. Most yacht insurance policies explicitly exclude damage caused by Named Tropical Storms (NTA) in certain geographical areas during the hurricane season. Insurers generally do not cover yachts if they are located between 10°N and 30°N during the period from 1 June to 30 November - i.e. exactly in the hurricane belt during the season.

Some insurers offer special hurricane clauses, but these are subject to strict conditions: the boat must either be stored on a steel storage trestle on land, securely anchored to the ground, and the mast and boom must be stored separately. Alternatively, the yacht must be in a pre-approved "safe port".

Following the devastating hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017, many insurance companies have drastically tightened their policies. Some providers no longer insure yachts in the Caribbean at all during the hurricane season, while others only cover 80 per cent of the value and only if the boat is taken out of the water. Even Grenada, which was long considered safe, is no longer fully covered by many companies.

The insurance situation in the Pacific is similarly restrictive. Insurers generally do not cover yachts between 10°S and 30°S from 1 November to 1 May - i.e. during the South Pacific cyclone season. The comparatively calm forecast for 2026 does not change the insurance conditions. Anyone wishing to sail in the affected areas must either agree a detailed hurricane plan with the insurance company, take the yacht out of the risk area during the season or bear the financial risk themselves.

And what does this mean for the North and Baltic Seas?

The effects of El Niño are significantly smaller in Europe than in the tropics. According to the German Weather Service, El Niño events can lead to more severe cold snaps in Central Europe, for example. The sailing season from May to September is likely to remain largely unaffected. Studies show that the strongest effects on Europe occur with a time delay. Little will change for local sailors: tried and tested trip planning with weather observation remains the be-all and end-all.