Confirmed: El Niño is shifting storm patterns – with consequences for sailors

On 11 June 2026, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an El Niño advisory, confirming what the Japanese Meteorological Agency had already announced: El Niño has arrived. There is a 63 per cent probability that the event could become ‘very strong’ by this autumn – a classification that only applies once the temperature deviation reaches plus 2.0 degrees. For sailors, this means: a calmer Atlantic, a stormier north-western Pacific, and little change in local waters.

A sigh of relief here, a word of caution there

After two devastating hurricane seasons, crews in the Caribbean can breathe a cautious sigh of relief. The NOAA is forecasting 11 to 14 named storms for 2026. This remains below the average of 14 and a far cry from the 18 storms of the disastrous year 2024. The reason is a strengthening El Niño, which is inhibiting hurricane formation in the tropical North Atlantic.

However, the same climatic factor is fuelling typhoon activity in the north-western Pacific. Weathernews Japan is forecasting 27 to 29 tropical cyclones for the entire season – well above the average. The classic Pacific sailing routes along the Barefoot Route will remain unaffected by this, though the trade winds here may become less reliable. In the North Sea and Baltic Sea, the long-range effects of the Pacific phenomenon will be barely noticeable.

The spring barrier has been breached: what is now certain

As early as May, major insurance companies in particular were reporting the likelihood of a strong El Niño event this year. YACHT magazine also reported on this. However, in April and May, meteorologists still had to rely on probabilities. The reason: the so-called ‘spring barrier’ to predictability.

El Niño is only one half of the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) phenomenon, a coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the Pacific that oscillates between a warm phase (El Niño), a cold phase (La Niña) and a neutral state. Between February and May, a previous ENSO event begins to subside. It is not yet clear which phase will follow. The coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere is weak at this stage, and models produce unclear results. It is only from June onwards that the forecasts become more accurate.

On 11 June, the NOAA's official El Niño advisory and stated that El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific and is expected to intensify to a moderate to strong level by autumn. The agency estimates the probability of sea surface temperatures exceeding the 2.0°C threshold at 63 per cent – which would lead the NOAA to classify the event as ‘very strong’.

The The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) was even quickerr. In a statement, the JMA had already classified El Niño as having occurred a day earlier, making it the first major meteorological organisation to take this step. It is therefore certain that El Niño is here. Whether it will actually become very strong remains a matter of probability – albeit one that has been quantified.

What El Niño means for the hurricane season

The effects of El Niño conditions on the Atlantic are measurable: The Colorado State University On 10 June, it lowered its hurricane forecast to just 11 named storms (down from 13 previously), citing the wind shear caused by El Niño as the reason. Activity is expected to be around 60 per cent of the 1991–2020 average. The Atlantic had not produced a single tropical storm by 13 June.

El Niño events alter conditions in the Atlantic basin, bringing cooler waters and greater vertical wind shear – not an ideal environment for tropical systems.

Anyone spending the summer season in the Caribbean will be able to do so in 2026 with a statistically lower risk. Hurricane holes such as Le Marin on Martinique or Rodney Bay Marina on Saint Lucia offer relative safety. Islands such as Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao, Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago lie outside the hurricane belt. But beware: even individual storms can cause considerable damage.

The relatively calm Atlantic forecast does nothing to alter the strict insurance conditions. Most yacht insurance policies explicitly exclude damage caused by named tropical cyclones between 10°N and 30°N during the period from 1 June to 30 November – in other words, precisely within the hurricane belt during the season.

Some insurance companies offer special hurricane clauses, but these are subject to strict conditions: the boat must either be stored on land on a steel cradle or be located in a pre-approved ‘safe port’. Following the devastating hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017, many insurers have drastically tightened their policies. Some providers no longer insure yachts in the Caribbean at all during the hurricane season, whilst others only cover 80 per cent of the value.

Anyone wishing to sail in the affected areas must either agree a detailed hurricane plan with their insurer, remove the yacht from the risk area during the season, or bear the financial risk themselves.

Pacific: Typhoons on the rise, trade winds may weaken

Weathernews, which claims to be the world’s largest private weather service company, headquartered in Chiba, Japan, forecasts an above-average typhoon season for the North-West Pacific in its latest seasonal analysis, with an estimated 27 to 29 tropical storms or typhoons expected for the year as a whole. A developing El Niño, which could potentially be one of the strongest on record, is the dominant atmospheric driver for the season.

By 24 May, six typhoons had already formed – about three more than the usual number for this time of year. The increased activity is mainly affecting the waters around Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan – not typical areas for round-the-world sailors on the classic Barefoot Route.

Barefoot Trail: Trade winds may be weaker

Even though the Barefoot Route in the South Pacific is not affected by increased cyclone activity, one of its effects can result in longer crossings for sailors: El Niño can weaken the south-easterly trade winds, which are crucial for the classic route from the Galapagos or Panama to the Marquesas. Cruising World expressly points out that El Niño years can affect wind direction, timing and currents. The trade winds tend to be weaker, particularly in the early months of the season.

Added to this is a shift in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), which moves north-eastwards during El Niño years. This can lead to more unsettled weather patterns along the northern route. Anyone planning the Barefoot Route in the coming months should remain flexible and allow for more time than in neutral years.

The North Sea and the Baltic Sea: Hardly any direct impact

For local sailors, the news is reassuring: the effects of El Niño are significantly less pronounced in Europe than in the tropics. According to the online portal cleanthinking.de The German Weather Service anticipates that a strong El Niño event could have long-range effects in late winter 2027: severe Arctic cold snaps, triggered by atmospheric waves that spread to Central Europe with a time lag.

The main sailing season, from May to September, is unlikely to be significantly affected by this. The North Atlantic Oscillation has a greater influence on European weather; as such, a strong El Niño can still coincide with a mild summer here.

Studies show that the most significant effects on Europe occur with a time lag. For sailors on the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, little changes: tried-and-tested trip planning combined with weather monitoring remains the be-all and end-all. Unlike in tropical waters, where El Niño directly influences hurricane and typhoon activity, the effects on sailing weather in German waters are rather minor and indirect.

Two devastating years had gone before

The scale of the relief only becomes clear when compared with previous years. In 2024, Atlantic winds were extremely active, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. Economic losses were estimated at over 140 billion dollars, and 378 people died. Beryl became the earliest Category 5 storm ever recorded, Helene claimed 248 lives, and Milton developed from a tropical storm into a Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours.

2025 saw three Category 5 hurricanes. Melissa devastated western Jamaica with wind speeds of 295 km/h. According to the World Bank, the damage amounted to $8.8 billion. Major ports and marinas suffered total or near-total structural damage.

However, scientists warn against a false sense of security: even below-average seasons can give rise to catastrophic individual events. It remains more important than ever to plan your sailing trips flexibly and keep an eye on several weather models.

"Super El Niño" – a term with no scientific basis

Many media outlets are referring to this now-confirmed phenomenon as a "Super El Niño". Yet this term simply does not exist in climate research.

The scientific classification has four levels: weak (0.5 to 0.9 degrees), moderate (1.0 to 1.4 degrees), strong (1.5 to 1.9 degrees) and very strong (2.0 degrees and above). The highest official category is ‘very strong’ – ‘super’ does not appear in the classification. At present, the forecasts are still based on probabilities, which will become more certain in the coming months.

This is illustrated clearly by the forecast for 2026. As recently as April, the JMA estimated the probability of an El Niño occurring in the summer at 70 per cent. In its June advisory, it classifies the event as certain, with a sea surface temperature of plus 1.2 degrees in May – a moderate El Niño. Whether this develops into a very strong one will be decided in the coming months.