Forecast 2023: Are the fat years in sailing over?
The shipyards' order books are full, many harbours in the north and south have no more free berths, and the charter industry is registering unbroken high demand for holiday cruises. And this at a time when the whole world is looking anxiously at ever-increasing prices and discussing urgently needed cost-cutting measures. The boat industry, it seems, is not being hit hard by the current economic crisis. But that could soon change.
As reported, the German Water Sports Industry Association published its latest survey at the beginning of November, in which member companies were asked to give their assessment for the coming year: According to the survey, many company bosses are sceptical about their business prospects for 2023.
Reason enough to take a closer look at how the various sectors of the yacht market are prepared for the challenges ahead following the coronavirus-related boom.
Sustained enthusiasm for sailing
Despite the tense situation, the German Sailing Association (DSV) is positive about the mood among sailors. Christiane Perlewitz, Head of DSV Public Relations, says: "We continue to have a pleasingly good influx. Although the number of clubs has fallen slightly in recent years, the total number of members in the clubs has increased."
The number of sailing students who have passed their sailing licence test also gives little cause for concern. On the contrary. Perlewitz: "In fact, the number of boating licences issued by us this year up to and including September is lower than in the same period last year. Nevertheless, it is significantly higher than in 2019. And the result may still change in the year as a whole if the last three months are in particularly high demand."
Klaus Schlösser from the sailing school bootsausbildung.com in Bremen confirmed: "The artificial wave of the last two years is over, but that was to be expected. 2020 and 2021 were great years and are unrivalled. What we can actually expect now is that the coming year will be characterised by less demand than 2019 before coronavirus, as many people who came to us during the pandemic had always wanted to get a pleasure craft licence and suddenly had the time to do so."
Now the sword of Damocles of the recession is hanging over the industry - although driving licences are still being diligently obtained, says Schlösser. "Our customers tend to be a clientele with greater purchasing power than the national average. For example, none of them have yet said that they are changing their holiday plans for 2023." And: boating licences are apparently decoupled from the economic situation. Locks:
Boating licences are always issued. We didn't even notice the banking crisis in 2008/09. My mood for the coming year is therefore cautiously positive."
Well-booked new boat business
The situation at the small and large series shipyards also appears to be relaxed so far. Hanseyachts General Sales Manager Maxim Neumann reports that the Greifswald-based company's new boat business continues to go well, although delivery times are long due to demand. Anyone ordering a new boat today will have to be patient until mid-2024. According to Neumann, business with the large models from around 50 feet upwards is "booming", and business with boats from 43 feet upwards is also good. Only sales of smaller boats are less satisfactory. Bavaria says: "Incoming orders are still at a high level, but customers are taking a little longer to make their decisions, similar to before the pandemic."
At Mittelmann's shipyard in Kappeln, where they trade in J-boats and used yachts and operate a large winter storage facility, there is also no downturn in sight. There is still "a lot going on" in all areas, they say on the Schlei.
However, the situation is viewed realistically: the situation could change at any time if the high energy costs and inflation take hold. Then there will certainly be people who can no longer afford or want to buy a boat. This is likely to make itself felt first on the used boat market - in the form of an increasing supply of boats. However, others who are in a better economic position will not care about the higher prices, Mittelmann's believes.
Flensburger Yacht-Service, a dealer for Hanse and Moody, among others, is more sceptical about the future: "2022 was great, but sales will be somewhat lower in 2023," predicts sales employee Ilja Marady, adding: "We expect a significant decline in sales in 2024." Since the start of the war in Ukraine, business has become "extremely difficult". "Many customers have pulled out shortly before signing, especially medium-sized companies who prefer to keep their money in the company." However, there is still interest in boats. "However, people are waiting until the situation hopefully eases again soon. In addition to the sharp rise in new boat prices, the reasons for the incipient reluctance to buy are also the sometimes long delivery times at the shipyards.
Elan Yachts is much more confident about the future.
Our order backlog is at a record high, which means that most models will be sold out by autumn 2024."CEO Marko Skrbin
The Slovenians are equally unconcerned about the current supply bottlenecks for accessories. Production is running at full speed and all boats are being delivered on time.
"Demand for our sailing boats in particular has been fairly stable over the last two years. There are certainly customers who are holding off on their purchase decision due to the recent negative economic forecasts. At the same time, we are still registering strong demand for similar reasons, primarily due to concerns about future price increases. Both from private individuals and charter investors," says Skrbin.
Charter market in demand
The latter aspect is not surprising, as the charter market appears to be in good shape. Sarres-Schockemöhle Yachting, for example, reports that business is going well. Claudia Spennes-Kleutges says: "Charter destinations such as Croatia, Greece and to some extent Italy are still in demand. Only a few customers - mostly family crews or self-employed people - are booking a little more hesitantly." Some of them first want to see how the year ends as a result of inflation and the explosion in energy prices. "If things don't get so bad, these customers then want to book their charter cruise in the spring," says Spennes-Kleutges. Other providers, such as 1st Class Yacht Charter, are also optimistic and expect 2023 to be a similarly successful financial year as 2021 and 2022.
In contrast, the number of guest yachts has recently fallen slightly in both Sonwik Marina in the Flensburg Fjord and Neuhof Marina on the Strelasund. "Among other things, fewer charter crews have come to us," reports Sonwik harbour master Frank Volkmann. In contrast, the demand for a permanent berth remains high. "There are still 300 names on our waiting list, so there is hardly any difference to the coronavirus boom year of 2021." The same applies to Marina Neuhof and Marina Minde, which is located on the Danish side of the Flensburg Fjord, according to its operators.
Only in Heiligenhafen has the situation eased a little in terms of waiting times for a free permanent berth. Harbour master Arne Bennewitz says: "About half of the people who were on the waiting list have cancelled. That was always less in previous years." And not quite as many guest crews have moored here either.
However, one cannot speak of a crisis mood. Bennewitz:
No more berths are being cancelled, nor are more boats being sold than in previous years."
There is even less evidence of the global economic problems in the Mediterranean marinas. Zacharias G. Kiaffas from the Porto Heli marina in Greece says that booking figures are actually rising sharply: "We are currently seeing a 40 per cent increase in demand for mooring contracts compared to last year." However, he qualifies: "While the owners of larger yachts are leaving their boats in the harbour, it currently looks as if the owners of trailerable boats will be starting the season a little later than usual next year."
However, this does not primarily affect sailors, but the owners of smaller motorboats. Kiaffas: "For these boaters, the increased fuel costs certainly play a role."
Demand for berths also rose sharply at Marina Capo Nord in Aprilia Marittima on the northern Adriatic during the height of the pandemic. It was mainly their own countrymen who wanted to secure a berth in an Italian harbour. The fear of further entry restrictions in other countries was probably the deciding factor. Something similar was also observed in Germany during the second year of the coronavirus pandemic.
So far, there is no sign of a significant downturn either in the harbours in the north and south or in the boating industry in general. Whether this remains the case will become clear in just a few days' time when boot opens its doors in Düsseldorf. In the past, the world's largest water sports exhibition on land has always been a reliable indicator of the buying mood of customers and therefore of the business prospects of shipyards, dealers, outfitters and charter providers.
