The downfall of the "Bayesian"
The maritime world is looking eagerly to the coast of Sicily, where, according to FAZ The salvage of the sunken superyacht "Bayesian" is due to begin on 20 April 2025. The 56-metre-long sailing ship, built by the renowned Italian shipyard Perini Navi, has been lying at a depth of 50 metres off the coast of Porticello for over eight months. The sinking of the yacht on 19 August 2024 made headlines around the world and left many unanswered questions.
The "Bayesian", named after a statistical method, was more than just a luxury yacht. She embodied the dream of her owner Mike Lynch, a British tech billionaire, who died in the accident along with six other people, presumably including his 18-year-old daughter Hannah. Of the 22 people on board, 15 were rescued, but the tragedy cast a long shadow over the superyacht scene.
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Speculation about the downfall
With a weight of 540 tonnes and a width of 11.52 metres, the "Bayesian" not only offered luxurious living space, but also impressive sailing characteristics. The 73 metre high mast could carry sails with a total surface area of almost 3,000 square metres.
Experts speculate about the causes of the rapid sinking. One theory is that open hull hatches such as the large stern platform or the side boarding platform could have played a role. But even in this case, watertight bulkheads between the lazarette, engine room and cabins should have prevented an immediate sinking - unless one of the bulkhead doors was open.
Another hypothesis centres on the mast's area exposed to the wind. Even without the sails set, the massive mast could have caused a strong heel in combination with gale-force gusts. This in turn would have partially lifted the hull out of the water and given the wind an additional surface to attack. The lift keel of the "Bayesian", which could vary between 4.05 and 9.38 metres draught, could have further reduced the righting moment in the raised position.
The planned salvage
The salvage manoeuvre, scheduled for 20 April, will be carried out by a consortium of insurers led by British Marine. The plan is to first turn the yacht on its keel and then bring it to the surface with the help of cranes or innovative buoyancy systems.
After the lift, the "Bayesian" is to be transferred to Palermo for forensic examination. This investigation is of crucial importance as a manslaughter and murder investigation is underway in Italy. At the same time, an inquest into the deaths of four British victims was opened in the UK at the Coroner's Court in Ipswich.
The salvage of the "Bayesian" will not only be technically demanding, but also emotional. It marks the beginning of the investigation into a tragedy that has deeply shaken the yachting community. The knowledge gained could have far-reaching consequences for the safety standards of superyachts and possibly lead to changes in design and construction.
For the surviving relatives of the victims, especially the Lynch family, the recovery will be an important step towards coming to terms with the past.
