The downfall of the "Bayesian"
The yacht has been lying at a depth of 50 metres for over three months. On 19 August 2024, the "Bayesian" sank in a storm about 0.8 nautical miles off the coast of Porticello, Sicily. A tornado had apparently formed. Of the 22 people on board, 15 were safely evacuated, while a search and rescue mission later recovered the bodies of seven people, including those of "Bayesian" owner Mike Lynch, a British tech billionaire, and presumably his 18-year-old daughter Hannah.
More on the topic of "Bayesian":
Speculation about the downfall
The aluminium yacht sank within a few minutes. This rapid sinking raises a number of questions. One theory assumes that the hull hatches were open. But even if the large stern and side boarding platforms were open, the lazarette is separated from the engine room by a watertight bulkhead, which in turn is separated from the cabins by another watertight bulkhead. The flooding of a single section would hardly have led to a sinking, unless the door in the bulkhead to the engine room was open. Or additional water could have entered the interior via the 436 square metre deck. However, this would have meant that the yacht, which displaces 540 tonnes, would have heeled very heavily without a single sail set.
This, in turn, is not considered impossible. Even without the almost 3,000 square metres of sails, the 73 metre long mast offers a not inconsiderable area exposed to the wind. A heel generated by the mast could have lifted the 11.52 metre wide hull slightly on the windward side, so that additional parts of the underwater hull were available to the gale-force wind as an attack surface. In addition, a raised lift keel could have further reduced the righting moment. With the keel fully extended, "Bayesian" had a draught of 9.38 metres, compared to 4.05 metres when retracted.
The salvage of the "Bayesian"
The huge yacht is to be raised in order to clarify the exact cause of the sinking and thus any responsibility of the crew. The salvage plans were officially initiated in December 2024 by a consortium of insurers led by British Marine. These plans included turning the ship on its keel and lifting it with cranes or "innovative buoyancy systems".
The Italian Coast Guard must also approve the salvage proposal. After salvage, the Bayesian will presumably be taken to Palermo for forensic examination.
A manslaughter and murder investigation is underway in Italy, while in the UK an inquest into the deaths of four victims of the accident has been opened at the Coroner's Court in Ipswich. The cause of death of Michael Lynch has been determined as "drowning", but the causes of death of the other three people are still under investigation.
To this end, the court is hoping for further evidence from both the Italian authorities and the Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB). The delay in the salvage operation could also delay the investigation scheduled for April 2025. Until this has taken place, all theories about the sinking are likely to remain speculation.
