Vendée Globe 2020: Exclusive weather briefing from Malizia co-skipper Will Harris

In the last Volvo Ocean Race, he explained the tactics of the competitors together with Conrad Coleman in the race committee and thus became known to millions of sailors all over the world. The Brit has been co-skipper of Boris Herrmann's Team Malizia for two years now.

Will Harris, who also made a name for himself in the Figaro class last year, is an experienced navigator and all-round talent. For YACHT online, the deep-sea professional will from now on regularly analyse the course of the Vendée every weekend and comment on the weather and the probable course of the coming days. He will thus supplement the daily reporting of the editorial team, which starts on Sunday.

Here are his predictions for the initial phase, which promises to be quite challenging:

We are less than 48 hours away from the start of the Vendée Globe on 8 November at 13:02. It has been a challenge for the teams and race organisers to get to this stage. And although no spectators are allowed, we are lucky that the race can take place at all. We are finally at the stage where we can look at the weather and the strategy for the first part.

It will certainly be a fascinating race. The diversity of the fleet is unrivalled in terms of performance. About a third of the Imocas are brand new foilers. The rest is a mixture of designs from the last 20 years.

At the last Vendée in 2016, we saw a range in the performance of the boats that ultimately led to gaps of almost 8,000 nautical miles between the winner at the time, Armel Le Cléac'h, and the last to finish - more than an ocean. I'm sure we'll see something similar in this edition.

The development of foils and boat design over the last four years has resulted in a further 20 to 30 per cent increase in speed compared to the last winner "Banque Populaire" (this time again under the name "Bureau Vallée"). In extreme cases, the gain is even around 50 per cent. The record of 74 days is therefore likely to be significantly beaten.

What can we expect in the first week of the race?

From a strategic point of view, it will be anything but a simple weather situation. The North Atlantic is in a fairly active phase, with several weather systems moving in quickly from the west in the first two to three days of the race.

The wind for Sunday will be determined by a low pressure system (L1), the centre of which lies around 400 nautical miles west of Brittany. This system has moved northwards from Portugal and will continue its path towards Ireland on Sunday evening and Monday morning. At start time, we expect 15-18 knots of wind from the south-southeast and relatively flat seas - perfect conditions for a spectacular Vendée Globe start.

As soon as the fleet sails further away from the coast, probably on a west to west-north-westerly course, the wind will increase towards the centre of the depression; we are already expecting up to 35 knots on the first night.

The first decision to be made will be how fast and how far west the skippers sail. Will they choose a more direct, southerly course or will they try to follow a faster, more northerly course in order to reach the new westerly wind on the other side of the low. The boats with new foils, which are extremely fast on reach courses, make it possible to try out new tactical variations such as these.

Once on the western side of the depression, the wind will blow from the western quadrant, allowing the fleet to turn southwards. But beware: a high-pressure bridge (R1) is approaching quickly from the west and skippers must be careful not to sail too close to the Portuguese coast. The associated high pressure (H1) offers hardly any wind and blocks the more direct route to the equator. It looks as though it will stay that way, which would therefore only leave the option of sailing further west to avoid the low-wind zone.

A second low may then lead to fresh to stormy conditions and heavy seas as a very strong cold front (CF1) moves rapidly eastwards. The wind will rapidly increase in strength as the fleet approaches this front and gusts of up to 40 knots can be expected. This will lead to rough, steep seas that can reach four to five metres.

This can be a challenge for modern foilers, as the swell leads to extremely uncomfortable, even brutal movements, potentially including breakage. Some skippers may therefore decide to stay a little further south to avoid the worst conditions. In any case, the fleet will have to cross the cold front to reach the favourable westerly wind on the other side, which will allow them to set a southerly course.

As soon as this cold front passes on Tuesday afternoon, it becomes less clear which path is best. A low pressure system is blocking the usual easterly flow of the trade winds, leaving an unsorted mess in the pressure distribution.

The weather models do not currently agree on the track of the low. This in turn determines whether skippers should continue westwards or sail southwards. The ensemble routings, which calculate all possible developments and courses, show an east-west deviation of up to 1000 nautical miles.

There is only clarity to the extent that the eastern option near the Canary Islands does not appear to make sense; however, it cannot yet be ruled out completely. It is possible that a wind corridor will open up along the African coast, which some of the fleet will seek out if the rest of the Atlantic appears too unpredictable.

So the skippers have a tricky and important decision to make. They will probably not make it until one or two days after the start. And it is possible that the first major gaps in the fleet will already open up.

The tactics for the immediate initial phase, on the other hand, are clear: the aim is to sail conservatively and protect the boat from early damage in the first intense lows in the North Atlantic.