It's getting tight at the top of the Vendée Globe fleet. Only a few nautical miles separate the first eight boats. What was previously a race with distances of hundreds of nautical miles has now become a battle for every metre as the boats storm northwards in excellent trade wind conditions. Never before has the final phase of the Vendée Globe been so close, never before have there been so many skippers with a chance of winning.
As we will see, the strategy on the course through the North Atlantic looks quite favourable for the boats in front. Everything points to downwind sailing all the way to the finish. But that in turn will make the battle to the finish line off Les Sables-d'Olonne even more intense.
We have just received the answer to the question of who was most successful in the Doldrums passage and the transition to the north-easterly trade winds. The Doldrums were in a fairly active phase and made the passage more challenging than usual. The fleet was positioned more to the west than during the Atlantic descent after the start of the race.
Charlie Dalin ("Apivia") and Louis Burton ("Bureau Vallée 2") seem to have slipped through most easily and have been able to extend their lead over the rest of the fleet by a few nautical miles. In the short term, sailing in the north-easterly trade winds means that they will pull away a few more miles.
All the way up the South Atlantic Passat, we have seen that the foilers can take advantage of their designs and cutting-edge technologies. The current top five are all foilers. They have managed to continually extend their lead in foiling conditions. At this point, it is interesting to take a look back at who was the fastest. Because once the boats have reached the North Atlantic trade winds, something similar can be expected. In addition, the trade winds are currently very strong. After finally leaving the Doldrums, the leading group will have around 1100 nautical miles of sailing in the trade winds ahead of them. This is of some significance when you realise that the remaining section of the course to the finish is less than 3000 nautical miles in total.
Boris Herrmann's "Seaexplorer - Yacht Club de Monaco" was the most impressive boat to date. It has gained miles on the entire fleet. And his boat is still one hundred per cent intact. Even Charlie Dalin, who sails a very modern Imoca yacht, doesn't seem to be able to keep up with Boris. He must either have a damaged sail or cannot realise the full potential of his boat due to the foil damage suffered earlier in the race. If Boris can do it again, he should be able to make up for his Doldrums losses after taking a more westerly route than Louis and Charlie.
The trade winds will come from the north-east and turn slowly to the right while the fleet sails on a northerly course. This means room sheet courses with a true wind angle of 65 to 90 degrees - again ideal for foiling.
Typically, the winds blow at 15 to 25 knots, although gusts of up to 35 knots and extreme wind shifts can regularly be caught under the passing clouds. What controls the trade winds in the North Atlantic is the Azores High. Currently, and for much of the route through the North Atlantic, the Azores High is in a stable and immobile position just off the coast of Portugal.
It is usually the first weather feature to deal with when sailing in the North Atlantic, as the high is usually south of the North Atlantic Low. This marks the transition of the fleet from the displacement race in the trade winds to the battle for the best strategic position. This is the last chance to choose a different strategy for approaching the target.
Around 21 January, the leading boats will complete this transition at the height of the Canary Islands. The wind will turn quickly and shift to the south and finally to the south-west as soon as the boats have reached the north side of the high pressure area. The fleet can then jibe northwards in search of a North Atlantic low pressure area.
There are two things to consider: How close do you want to get to the centre of the high pressure area? The closer you get, the lighter the wind becomes. At the same time, the wind will shift more abruptly. On the other hand, it is clear that the closer you are to the centre, the shorter the route you have to sail. But how much boat speed will that cost? Secondly, which system do you want to head for when you jibe out of the high? Timing your position to an approaching area of low pressure and the associated cold front will be of the utmost importance. Because this system will carry you almost all the way to your destination. So a small difference in positioning at this point can mean big differences in wind shifts, angles or wind speeds.
I think that this Vendée Globe will be won or lost after the Azores High depending on these small differences in position. A North Atlantic low is very active and difficult to predict. That's why it's difficult to shed more light on this part of the race because it's still a while away. Nevertheless, we can already make out the weather systems.
A long, prominent cold front from a low pressure system sitting west of Newfoundland will spread to the Azores and the position of the leading boats on 23 January. It will serve up the first cold front winds, even if they will still be quite weak. More important is how the low pressure area begins to rotate and interact with a newly developing low moving east from the North American east coast.
This newer system is very active and moves quickly to the east. As a result, the two lows quickly merge and form a much larger area of low pressure with several centres. At the same time, the cold front over the fleet also integrates into this system. The leading boats should expect an incoming low pressure system on 24 January at around 1 pm German time (+36 hours), which will bring strong south-westerly winds and a subsequent cold front.
This low pressure system will find its way towards the north-west. The high off Portugal will force it to the north of the French coast. However, the south-westerly winds of around 20 knots will persist and will allow the boats to sail towards their destination with optimum downwind angles (VMG). This is where the game of tacking back and forth with the wind shifters becomes hard work, but it is worth remembering that the decisions in this race can come down to a difference of just a few nautical miles.
The timing of the systems is also important: hitting one of the cold fronts an hour earlier or later than expected could change the entire routing considerably. The skipper must therefore stay on the ball and constantly check the forecasts. Even if it is a fast and direct route to the destination, it is by no means an easy one.
The conditions will also not be as "extreme" as expected. Normally, you can easily experience 40 knots and more when sailing in North Atlantic low-pressure areas. However, due to this high sitting stubbornly off Portugal's coast, the lows are being steered away to the north. This means that the fleet can accelerate and not go into survival mode. The first boat should cross the finish line around 28 January. And it's quite possible that we'll see seven more on the same day.
Tatjana Pokorny
Sports reporter
