So far, the Vendée Globe in the South Atlantic has been extremely interesting. No sign of the usual "column sailing" of previous editions of the solo non-stop race! This time, the leading group is closer together than ever and has already had to deal with several tricky weather systems.
There were also big differences in their strategies - and different routes depending on their position. Thomas Ruyant on "LinkedOut" and Charlie Dalin on "Apivia", for example, decided to sail a westerly route in order to be the first to benefit from a low. Since the weekend, however, it has become clear that the top 10 boats are now starting to tighten up again. This race is far from over.
The first boats should reach stable easterly trade wind conditions north of the 18th parallel around midday on Wednesday. Until then, there are some challenging obstacles for the leaders to overcome and opportunities for those sailing behind them to make good miles.
Let's take a closer look at this.
The St Helena High, which dominates the wind conditions in the South Atlantic, is currently shifting. A low is "pushing" it eastwards from its position in the direction of South Africa. The depression moves with it, leaving behind a low-wind zone on the coast of South America. This is where the St Helena High will renew itself and start the process again. Depending on how the low pressure systems influence the high, this will affect the speed at which this process takes place. It can also have a big impact on the strength of the trade winds that are driven by the St Helena High.
The high currently lies to the west of the top group and is slowly working its way eastwards. The Vendée skippers are making the most of the southerly and easterly winds around them. All except the leader, Yannick Bestaven, who is now well north of the high and approaching a fairly impassable zone of low gradient wind.
The quickest way to the north is through the high pressure towards the north-east, where the wind turns with it. Then you have to jibe at the right moment and try to get as far north of the high pressure as possible, where the wind is more favourable. The course resembles the shape of a seagull's wing, a classic pattern. From second-placed Charlie Dalin to Maxime Sorel in 10th place, everyone is following this tactic.
There are small gains to be made in this phase, on the one hand through the perfect timing of the jibe and on the other through good boat speed. Boris Herrmann on "Seaexplorer - Yacht Club de Monaco" seems to have shifted up a gear on Sunday. He enjoyed the flat water conditions, which allowed him to use his long foils and sail faster than the boats without hydrofoils around him. As a result, he has already improved from 11th to 7th place over the weekend.
But north of the high, miles can be gained as well as lost. The St Helena High often drives the trade winds here, but this is no longer the case due to its current position. A large hole has opened up here and it is almost as if there is a barrier where the wind switches off. A boundary between two air masses of different temperatures is the cause of this and it will prove quite difficult to get past as the trade winds only start to re-establish themselves on Wednesday morning.
It looks as if Yannick Bestaven will reach this hole first, whereupon his pursuers, sailing with better wind, will line up behind him. At the moment there are 600 nautical miles between the leader and Maxime Sorel in 10th place, which is very little in Vendée Globe terms at this late stage of the race. On Monday and Tuesday the gaps could shrink even further, to 50 nautical miles between Bestaven and Charlie Dalin and 150 nautical miles to the rest of the top 10. Almost a kind of restart.
Towards Tuesday evening the St Helena High will be to the east of the fleet and in this position will strengthen the trade winds - first along the Brazilian coast and then further out in the South Atlantic. By Wednesday morning, it should be clear who has made the smoothest transition to the easterly trade winds. The ranking list could look very different afterwards than it does now.
Initially, there is still a pronounced northerly component in the South Atlantic trade winds. This means sharpened reach courses of 70 to 80 degrees true wind angle. In general, we have seen that modern Imocas with foils sail faster in these conditions as they can generate a lot of righting moment, which in turn leads to more power and speed.
The next thing to consider is the easternmost point of Brazil, Recife. The first boats are expected to pass Recife on 15 January. Due to the shape of the land and the prevailing easterly trade winds, there is a coastal pole effect. This means that the wind can be weaker if you get too close to the coast. In general, skippers should be at least 30 nautical miles from the coast to avoid slowing down due to the lighter winds.
One day later, on 16 January, the approach to the Kalmen follows at 1 degree south latitude. At this time of year, the doldrums generally do not cause too many problems and the fleet should not be slowed down too much here. But beyond that, she still has the entire North Atlantic ahead of her, which will inevitably keep the race exciting right to the finish.
