More than half of the total distance of The Ocean Race is already in the wake of the yachts, but only 44 per cent of the points have been awarded. This makes it clear why good placings are now more important than ever. And even if the fourth leg, which starts on Sunday evening, only counts for a maximum of five points, the teams will not be giving each other anything away.
On their return to the northern hemisphere, they will sail over 5,550 nautical miles from Itajaí to Newport, Rhode Island, on the east coast of the United States. It is the last major south-north passage of the race, and it also marks a change of season: the crews will leave Brazil in autumn and arrive in the USA in spring.
High pressure and light wind poker right from the start
On their way north, they will try to avoid the effects of the southbound Brazilian current and the light winds of the weather system known as the St Helena High, which they last encountered on the second leg from Cape Verde to South Africa.
First, however, they have to break away from the massive high that lies directly over the east coast of Brazil and promises only extremely light gradient winds for the start phase. At best, thermals may provide a little more pressure in the afternoon.
Approaching the Brazilian city of Recife in the north-east corner of the country often leads to a strategic split in the fleet, as navigators have to decide whether to sail offshore in search of stronger, more stable winds or take the shorter, more direct route along the coast. And that's just the beginning of the tactical game.
Who is best at detaching themselves from the Doldrums?
Later, the teams have to cross the Doldrums and the equator for the last time. A split in the fleet is also quite possible here, as has already been shown on leg two in the opposite direction. The aim is not only to pass the weak wind zone as quickly as possible, but also to position themselves optimally for the north-east trade wind blowing north of it.
If it holds at full strength, Boris Herrmann's "Malizia - Seaexplorer" could be favoured because it seems to be unbeatable in fresher conditions and especially in swell. However, she is not one of the best in light winds.
It is possible, if not highly probable, that skipper Will Harris, who is taking Boris' place because he is retiring as planned, will take the large A2 gennaker with him. The team will decide on this today after checking the latest weather forecasts. It was not on board on legs one and two, which in hindsight proved to be a disadvantage on the second leg, which was extremely windless in the first week. Team Malizia will have to leave another sail ashore, probably the FR0 (Fractional Zero) or the J0 (Jib Zero, a kind of oversized Genoa 1).
Does Team Malizia benefit in the Passat?
After crossing the equator, the aim is to hook into the trade winds of the northern hemisphere, which will drive the fleet past the Caribbean archipelago towards the coast of Florida. The teams have to be constantly on their guard not to get their keels, foils and rudders caught in the huge tufts of Sargassum seaweed that litter the course in the tropical waters. This is because they are difficult or impossible to detach from the appendages, making it necessary to stop and drift backwards to get rid of them. This costs valuable miles.
North of Florida, there is a high likelihood of several storm systems moving in from the US mainland. Crews will also have to navigate their way through the complex effects of the meandering warm water currents known as the Gulf Stream. Utilising them correctly can be a key to success.
And then there is another potential challenge, the last of many on this leg: approaching the finish line in front of Fort Adams State Park in Newport, things can get exciting again if there is a calm - often accompanied by fog. In the previous Volvo Ocean Race, the fleet was pushed together in a light wind zone and turned the classification completely upside down in the final miles. Let's hope that the teams will be spared the kind of ordeal we saw before Cape Town this time.
According to the race committee's projections, the duration of the leg is estimated at around 17 days; the first boats are therefore expected to arrive between 9 and 11 May.
Why the stop in Newport could be critical for success in the overall standings
Unlike Cape Town and Itajaí, Newport will be a "non-haulout stop", which means that the Imocas will remain in the water and the technical teams will only have limited opportunities to repair damage.
There is also less time for repairs: a maximum of one week, then the first Pro-Am races will start again on 16 May; the restart will take place on 21 May. So a lot depends on the condition of the boats and their solidity.
This is all the more true with regard to leg five from Newport to Århus: it counts double, which is why a handicap in performance would be particularly disadvantageous in this phase of The Ocean Race. This is another factor that could speak in favour of Team Malizia. But there are many, too many subjunctives. For now, let's concentrate on the fourth leg and how well the five boats are coping with it.
Here is the current YACHT online form guide for the section to Newport
"11th Hour Racing"
Charlie Enright wants it! He hasn't won a stage yet and is currently in third place, behind Holcim and Malizia. His Verdier design is an all-rounder, good for the route ahead. His family lives in Newport. He will do everything in his power to win the "home game". He has a top navigator at his side in Simon Fisher and two experienced and, above all, fresh crew members in Francesca Clapcich and Damien Foxall.
Victory potential on stage four: 90 per cent
"Holcim- PRB"
Kevin Escoffier has sailed a simply impressive Ocean Race so far and has also been the benchmark in the Pro-Am races this week. His Verdier design has suffered a little more in the Southern Ocean than Malizia, more than he has admitted in interviews, but he is always a force to be reckoned with. One potential disadvantage could be the extensive crew rotation: The skipper has three new people on board, all with strong CVs, but not all fully familiar with the boat: Annemieke Bes (NED) and Benjamin Schwartz (FRA) are sailing on "Holcim - PRB" for the first time, only Fabien Delahaye (FRA) knows the Swiss yacht from the return passage after the Route du Rhum.
Victory potential on stage four: 90 per cent
"Malizia- Seaexplorer"
This is not the ideal stage for Boris Herrmann's boat. The higher weight compared to the other new designs will be particularly noticeable in the transitions between weather systems and in the calms. On the other hand, the crew will be able to maximise their speed in the Passat, which may offset or at least limit the disadvantage. The crew is undoubtedly in Team Malizia's favour: skipper Will Harris, who already led the VPLP design on leg two, is eager for success. Navigator Nico Lunven is a genius in his field and an excellent sailor to boot. Rosalin Kuiper's energy level is legendary anyway; she said in the middle of the week that she was "more ready for the race than ever before". And Christopher Pratt, who worked with Jérémie Beyou on "Charal" for a long time, is regarded in Imoca circles as an extremely experienced co-skipper. Something's up!
Victory potential on stage four: 85 per cent
"Guyot Environnement- Team Europe"
Having finished last twice so far and even DNF on leg three due to a delamination in the hull, the French-German team led by skipper Benjamin Dutreux and Robert Stanjek has not yet been able to show its true potential. That is now set to change. The boat is in top form due to the forced break, even if it is a little heavier due to the reinforcement in the bottom of the hull, which reduces the light wind performance. However, the long waterline gives it an advantage in non-foil mode, which will come into play on this leg. The crew remains unchanged compared to the third leg: in addition to the skipper and his German mate Kaleu, Annie Lush and navigator Seb Simon are two top shots on board.
Victory potential on stage four: 80 per cent
"Biotherm"
One of the hardest things to assess is the potential of Paul Meilhat's project for the course from Itajaí to Newport. The boat is demonstrably fast, especially in flat seas and light to medium winds, but it has suffered the most of all in the Southern Ocean and is not at 100 per cent. The same can be said about the crew: the skipper is an ace who is always to be reckoned with. However, like Kevin Escoffier, he brings three newcomers who have never been on "Biotherm" in racing mode: Alan Roberts (GBR), an experienced Figaro sailor, Mariana Lobato (POR), 2013 match race world champion, and Marie Riou (FRA), Nacra 17 world champion and 2018 winner of the Volvo Ocean Race with Dongfeng.
Victory potential on stage four: 80 per cent
As you can see from our form guide, we are expecting another exciting race with lots of lead changes. As Boris Herrmann said in the YACHT interview on Thursday: "Every leg is like a new race." May the best team win!
