Hurricane Melissa is expected to reach the coast of Jamaica early this morning (local time) with the highest hurricane force 5. "A Category 5 storm would be a devastating disaster," warned Prime Minister Andrew Holness. The US hurricane centre (NHC) in Miami reported on Monday evening that the storm system with wind speeds of up to 280 kilometres per hour was located around 245 kilometres southwest of the capital Kingston. Gusts of up to 388 kilometres per hour have been measured so far. According to the Jamaican weather service, the storm will make landfall in the south-west of the island, between the districts of Westmoreland and Saint Elizabeth.
Slow storm with devastating consequences
The low speed at which Melissa is travelling is particularly threatening. The hurricane is only moving across the sea at around four kilometres per hour - a factor that further increases its destructive power. "A slow pace means that communities will have to endure relentless heavy rain for days instead of just hours," said the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement in Geneva. The Red Cross also warned of "potentially unprecedented consequences" for the country of 2.8 million people, as the island nation has never before been hit by a cyclone of this strength. According to forecasts, Melissa will cross Jamaica from the south coast to the north coast.
NHC meteorologists are expecting storm surges of up to four metres on the south coast of Jamaica when the hurricane reaches the island. Due to the expected heavy rainfall, catastrophic flooding and landslides are also to be feared on the mountainous island. The hurricane could have a particularly devastating impact on the one million inhabitants of the capital Kingston, which lies on a plain between the sea and the mountains. Images from a webcam in the capital's harbour show impressively how the foothills of the hurricane whip up the Atlantic and drive towards the mainland.
According to the NHC, "destructive winds, storm surges and catastrophic flooding" are expected even before the storm arrives. Melissa is already causing power outages after falling trees damaged power lines. According to the Ministry of Energy, more than 50,000 connections are without electricity.
Further Caribbean states on alert
After Jamaica, Melissa is expected to move across south-east Cuba as a "strong hurricane" on Tuesday and reach the Bahamas on Wednesday. Its core is expected to pass over the Exumas move over. A hurricane warning has been issued for Jamaica, the eastern Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo and Holguín as well as for parts of the Bahamas. An advance warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos Islands. The authorities in Cuba and the Bahamas are also preparing to evacuate thousands of people from the most vulnerable regions to safety.
The preparations for the hurricane have already claimed the first lives. In the past few days, three people have been killed in tree felling accidents in Jamaica, according to the Ministry of Health. In Haiti and the Dominican Republic, at least four people died after heavy rainfall. Jamaica's head of government ordered evacuations for several localities and called on the entire population to stay at home if possible and follow the instructions of the authorities. Kingston airport was closed.
Boats are secured in the best possible way
Boats were secured in the harbours, as can be seen in a video by Jamaican radio station Irie FM from the tourist town of Ocho Rios. Volunteers are helping to secure the boats in the water with additional lines and as far away from the quay walls as possible, reports the first spokesperson. As many boats as possible were taken out of the water after the first reports of the impending storm. "The larger boats," reports one of the helpers, "are being moved to Montego Bay in the mangroves."
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Ideal conditions for rapid intensification
Melissa is the thirteenth named storm, fifth hurricane and fourth major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with sustained wind speeds of 280 km/h and a minimum central pressure of 903 millibars. The hurricane is not only the strongest of the current season, but also the most intense tropical cyclone worldwide in 2025. Melissa already occupies eighth place in the list of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes.
The phenomenon of rapid intensification, in which sustained wind speeds increase by 58 mph (about 93 km/h) or more within 24 hours, has become more common in the Gulf in recent years. Devastating hurricanes Helene, Ian and Michael all intensified rapidly as they approached the coast. Hurricane Erin was the latest example of extreme rapid intensification in the Atlantic basin. Last month, Erin's maximum sustained winds increased by an astonishing 85 mph (about 137 km/h) in 24 hours, exploding the storm from a Category 1 hurricane to a Category 5 hurricane in the warm waters.
Experts predicted particularly severe hurricanes
In the AccuWeather forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season the experts pointed to an increased risk of direct impacts along the Gulf Coast of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida. Atlantic Canada, the coast of North Carolina, the north-eastern Caribbean, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are also at an increased risk of direct storm impacts this season. The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season falls on 10 September, and AccuWeather hurricane experts had already predicted in March that the second half of the season would have more named storms than the first half.
"Ocean heat content, or the depth of warm ocean water in the Gulf and western Caribbean, is near record levels," warned Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at AccuWeather, in early September. The water temperatures in the Gulf are currently around 30 degrees Celsius, which could fuel a tropical storm. Compared to the previous year, when the hurricanes Beryl and Debby as well as tropical storms Alberto and Chris all passed through the Gulf before September, the region remained almost unaffected this year. These conditions would create a worrying scenario for the coming weeks.
Origin and development
The origins of Melissa can be traced back to a tropical wave that was first observed by the National Hurricane Center on 16 October 2025. After forming off the west coast of Africa, the wave moved across the central Atlantic to the Windward Islands and then westwards into the Caribbean Sea. There, the system slowed down and developed into Tropical Storm Melissa on 21 October. Due to weak steering currents, the storm initially moved slowly and irregularly in a west-northwesterly direction over the very warm waters of the central Caribbean. Westerly wind shear initially prevented significant intensification.
From 23 October, the wind shear began to weaken, allowing the storm to move more vertically. Melissa turned more to the north and gained strength. Under extremely favourable conditions, a rapid intensification set in on 25 October, with maximum wind speeds increasing from 115 km/h to 225 km/h in just 18 hours. After a brief pause, intensification continued, and during a generally westerly motion, Melissa reached Category 5 hurricane status early on 27 October.
