After days of high pressure dominance, the weather situation is changing a little. On 1 May, the high pressure is already in the Baltic States and a new low over Scandinavia is slowly interfering in the weather. On the public holiday, however, only in the form of significantly warmer air. As a result, we'll see peak temperatures of 21 degrees on land right by the water and up to 27 degrees inland.
A cold front will then pass through early on Friday. Although it is only weak, showers and brief thunderstorms are still possible. By the afternoon, however, it will have passed and it will clear up again. But then only between 16 and 22 degrees. This is also the starting signal for the growing influence of the Scandinavian low.
The northerly to north-westerly wind will pick up significantly and showers will pass from time to time. This is particularly true for the North and Baltic Sea regions and northern Germany. In southern Germany, on the other hand, the cold front from Friday will barely arrive. This means that Thursday and Friday will be sunny, dry and hot at just under 30 degrees. From Saturday onwards, however, the influence of a low pressure system near Portugal and its front will cause severe weather conditions. Strong shower and thunderstorm cells with severe weather potential will form in the warm air.
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Forecast for the Baltic Sea
We are starting the long weekend in May with the influence of high pressure, fairly warm temperatures of up to 21 degrees on the water and up to 27 degrees inland and only a very weak southerly wind. There is no clear tendency in the wind field for the regions. At least there may be some sea breezes on land.
Things look different on 2 May. The high pressure system moves eastwards and makes way for a low pressure system near Scandinavia. Its cold front will pass over the Baltic Sea with showers and possible short thunderstorms early on Friday. As a result, the 10 to 14 knot wind from the south-west in front of the front will turn into a much gustier wind from the north-west behind the front with 20 knots, gusting to 25 knots in the afternoon.
The pressure in the air will continue to increase, as the low pressure will not decrease. As a result, we can expect an average of 20 to 25 knots on Saturday, 3 May, with gusts of up to 35 knots and repeated showers. These could then increase the wind to 40 knots in isolated cases. So it looks like a harbour day.
On Sunday, however, there will be more calm again as the depression weakens and the flow around the Norwegian mountains causes a disturbance in the wind field.
In the western Baltic Sea, as well as the Belt and Sound, the wind will break away completely in some places during the course of the day and blow very irregularly, mostly from the north. As the depression moves eastwards, the somewhat stronger wind in the central Baltic Sea will remain for a little longer, but here too there will be much more calm towards the afternoon.
Forecast for the North Sea
The high with its centre over the Baltic Sea will ensure a southerly wind in the North Sea area (wind always rotates clockwise around a high) on the holiday with very warm temperatures of well over 20 degrees over land and around 20 degrees on the water.
However, as it is only a weak wind, there is also a building sea breeze. Both partly cancel each other out under the coast, so that it can sometimes be calmer. Local winds are decisive here. This will change on Friday, however, as a low pressure system near Scandinavia interferes and displaces the high with the low pressure differences.
As a result, a SW wind will initially freshen up with a cold front and showers in the morning, turning to the north-west and reaching 10 to 15 knots around the Dutch Waddenzee and 20 to 25 knots towards the North Frisian coast.
But it's still dry. On Saturday, however, there will be real pressure in the air. In combination with showers, the low pressure in the north will cause a stormy north-westerly wind. 20 to 25 knots on average and gusts of 30 knots towards Holland to 45-50 knots towards Sylt and the Danish North Sea coast are to be expected.
The whole thing hardly calmed down on Sunday either. Although the low pressure system is moving eastwards, a new high pressure system is still supporting the pressure gradient from the west and it is still blowing very strongly on Sunday with an average of 20 to 24 knots and gusts of up to 35 knots on the open North Sea.
Forecast for the inland waterways
The current high makes for a summery start to May. Temperatures of between 26 and almost 30 degrees are expected on 1 and 2 May. This means there won't be much in the way of wind. Only a little sea breeze may form here and there on the lakes in the afternoon. Only the Ijesselmeer is already so far away from the high centre that a light southerly wind may appear here. Friday, however, will look very different in terms of wind.
While the south is still struggling with the remnants of the high and therefore only a little wind, the wind in the north is picking up with the influence of a low pressure system near Scandinavia. It will gradually turn to the north-west and gradually increase in the course of the day. 10 to 15 knots are already possible. On Saturday, the depression will gain even more strength and the north-westerly wind between the Ijsselmeer and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will become much stronger. 15 to 20 knots on average and gusts of up to 30 knots are possible, especially with the showers.
In southern Germany, on the other hand, showers are also expected, but from a low pressure system near Portugal, which will send a front. There will be no widespread wind here, but only very localised showers. But then also partly with gale force and with thunderstorm potential. But very localised.
Sunday will also bring a lot of rain in the south, but here the north wind will slowly break through, which will also appear between the Ijsselmeer and the Mecklenburg Lake District. But in the north it will still be very brisk to stormy in gusts. However, a small disturbance in the wind field on the Baltic Sea will cause the wind to be calm at times on the lake district.
