Vendée Globe: Weather analysis - What the solo skippers can expect up to the equator
Jochen Rieker
· 15.11.2024
"It's a pleasure to follow such a close race," says Dorado inventor and marine weather expert Jure Jerman. Before the start in Les Sables, he familiarised many of the top skippers with his cloud-based routing tool, which works with finer-resolution data than the usual programmes such as Adrena or Squid, which run on the Imocas' on-board computers.
The 58-year-old meteorologist from the Slovenian weather service, himself a dedicated regatta sailor, has analysed the events for YACHT. He predicts a "neck-and-neck race and light winds" for the coming days, "with very few jibes and a few minefields".
Vendée Globe: Leaders likely to reach the equator next Friday
A no-go zone is forming to the south of the fleet's current position. "The front runners will enter this area on a west-south-west course," expects Jure Jerman, whereby the prevailing northerly wind further south "will become even weaker before slowly turning to the east". However, this change will not initially be accompanied by a major increase in pressure.
According to the latest calculations, the first of the Vendée Globe is expected to reach the equator next Friday, possibly a day earlier or later. The wind will only pick up again from Wednesday.
Light wind phase: non-foilers could benefit
Jerman expects "tricky conditions and constant big differences in speed" for the skippers. The passage of the Doldrums, on the other hand, could be brisk. "All routes run very close to the Brazilian coast. The two weather models - red (ECMWF) and green (GFS) - are close together and there are no major deviations in the ensembles either."
Nevertheless, the gaps could widen again in the coming week, especially at the top - namely when the boats that are favoured in flat water and light winds are the first to take to the foils and pull away. This should play into the hands of Charlie Dalin ("Macif") in particular, but also Nico Lunven ("Holcim - PRB") and Sam Goodchild ("Vulnerable"), who have already repeatedly taken turns at the top.
Non-filers such as Benjamin Ferré's "Monnoyeur - Duo for a Job" and Jean Le Cam's new David Raison Imoca "Tout commence a Finisterre" are also set to benefit from the upcoming light wind phase.
Boris Herrmann in third place at second Vendée Globe
Meanwhile, Boris Herrmann moved up to third place last night, just 20 nautical miles away from first place. A very strong comeback with which he impressively demonstrated his ambitions.
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Day 5: Boris Herrmann reports from the ship:
Jochen Rieker
Herausgeber YACHT
