The finish line is almost in sight. But only almost. Just like mountaineers who have laboriously climbed to the summit and only from there realise that there are more to come, the soloists in the Vendée Globe are also struggling. One low chases the next. Depending on which of the three "groups" of the fleet in places four to 13 a boat is currently in, skippers are challenged in different ways. Their final summit assault is a tough one.
Who is faster: the Vendée Globe skippers or the deep?
"These last days of the race are anything but a long, calm river," confirmed Clarisse Crémer. The "L'Occitane en Provence" skipper said in an interview with Vendée-Live! presenter Andi Robertson: "It's better not to think too much about how many humps are still to come, otherwise there's a risk of disappointment. The idea is to take it one at a time. What's complicated is this uncertainty: will I arrive on Sunday or not?"
A particularly strong area of low pressure is expected in the Bay of Biscay on Sunday. "As long as it keeps picking up speed, there's even a chance that I'll have to slow down, and that's hard to cope with morally," said Clarisse Crémer, explaining her thoughts with a view to the possibly even too stormy final for the boats in tenth to 13th place, which are expected to finish between 26th and 27th January.
Boris Herrmann sailed in last position of this quartet at the start of race day 74 with his broken port foil. His position appeared to be one of the most exposed according to the latest forecasts with a view to the final and the approaching "monster low". However, the "Malizia - Seaexplorer" skipper could most likely slow down his speed without very close competition from behind, according to Vendée Live! presenter Andi Robertson, and in this way avoid a possibly too brutal encounter with the low.
Vendée Globe final with mixed feelings
Sam Davies sailed just under 170 nautical miles ahead of Boris Herrmann in the afternoon of 22 January. The experienced Brit is contesting her fourth Vendée Globe. She also had mixed feelings about the weekend: "To be honest, I don't know how I'm going to get to Les Sables-d'Olonne. It's looking okay right now until the finish line, if I can follow the routing I'm currently on. I should arrive just before a really big low."
That was the good part of her positive, optimistic assumption. The less good part: "But I'm pretty sure it will be too dangerous to drive into the canal. At least that's how it looks according to the current forecast." However, in an interview on Wednesday afternoon, the "Initiatives - Cœur" skipper expressed her hope that things might get "a little bit better" in order to reach the harbour of Les Sables-d'Olonne safely and on time.
Sam Davies' former co-skipper, Ocean Race winner Jack Bouttell, also took part in the Vendée Live! programme. The Australian-born professional shared his views as a land-based observer.
Good seamanship required
Referring to Samantha Davies' possible finish on Sunday or Monday, Jack Bouttells said: "She might be able to make the finish line in acceptable conditions (...) but there is a possibility that she might not be able to reach the dock in Les Sables-d'Olonne." Bouttell feared that the harbour entrance of Les Sables-d'Olonne would be impassable in what are expected to be gale force winds and breaking waves.
Bouttell described several scenarios for Sam Davies: "In the best case scenario, she makes it to Les Sables-d'Olonne fast enough or the low slows down. Or she makes it to the finish and then maybe goes to La Rochelle and comes to Les Sables-d'Olonne a few days later." In the worst case scenario, says Jack Bouttell, the system will speed up or deteriorate. In this case, thought processes relating to seamanship, slowing down and waiting are required.
Like Sam Davies, Boris Herrmann concentrated on making the fastest possible progress on Wednesday, travelling at a speed of 16 knots. He looked at the scenario in the same way as the Brit, and briefly confirmed similar thoughts to YACHT online.
Severe Bay of Biscay storm in sight
Boris Herrmann and Sam Davies are joined in the race against the deep by Benjamin Dutreux ("Guyot Environnement - Water Family", 10th) and Clarisse Crémer (11th). Organisers, experts and fans are following their approach to the finish line with great excitement. Team Malizia had already encouraged its skipper the day before, expressing "strength and encouragement" in his direction. Co-skipper and weather expert Will Harris had explained that he was expecting winds in excess of 60, possibly 70 to 80 knots for Sunday.
At the front of the group of boats heading for the finish, the "Charal" skipper Jérémie Beyou, who was in fourth place, still had a good 400 nautical miles to go to the finish on Wednesday afternoon. His lead over "Biotherm" skipper Paul Meilhat was 155 nautical miles and over Nico Lunven ("Holcim - PRB") a good 200 nautical miles. Beyouy's long-term rival Sam Goodchild dropped back to seventh place, having in the meantime managed to brilliantly repair his mainsail, which had exploded in two in a crash jibe, in difficult conditions.
According to current weather forecasts, it looked as if this group could pass Cape Finistèrre quite close in the afternoon and turn classically into the Bay of Biscay from the south-west. That way they wouldn't have to do the northern loop like the three podium skippers. Jérémie Beyou is expected to cross the finish line on Friday.
REPLAY! Click here for the Vendée Live! programme with interesting observations from Sam Davies and her former co-skipper Jack Bouttell on the storm scenario for the weekend:
