For almost the entire duration of the Arctic Circle Race Sam Goodchild looked like the clear favourite to win the Vendée ArctiqueHe had a lead of up to 212 nautical miles over Élodie Bonafous before entering the North Channel between Great Britain and Ireland. By Monday morning, however, his lead had shrunk to around 50 nautical miles. Yet Élodie Bonafous will not be able to capitalise on her strong comeback in the light Bay of Biscay winds – which had initially slowed down frontrunner Sam Goodchild – to launch an attack.
The Frenchwoman still has a hefty time penalty to serve on the course. This decision was taken by the international jury at the weekend after she crossed the Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) in the North Channel between Ireland and Scotland. Following the hearing, the skipper of the “Association Petits Princes – Quéguiner” was handed a twelve-hour penalty.
Her punishment must Élodie Bonafous while still at sea and in accordance with strict protocol. She had two options for this: either before reaching 50°20’ North or after passing Île de Sein. The first option has already passed. For the skipper from Finistère, the ruling was a major setback. She has had an impressive race so far and fought her way back to second place over the weekend.
“When I heard about the punishment, it felt as though the ground had been pulled from under my feet.” Élodie Bonafous
The heavy penalty has hit Élodie Bonafous (”Association Petits Princes - Queguiner”) hard. She said: “Since then, I’ve been sailing with a mixture of bewilderment, frustration and, I must admit, a certain amount of anger.” She does not deny her mistake. “I fully accept that I sailed into a restricted area. That was my mistake.” The challenge now, however, is to deal with the consequences.
“The thought of having to hold on for twelve hours and watch the others sail past is extremely hard to accept.” Élodie Bonafous
Shortly before the finish, the penalty dramatically shifts the balance of power within the chasing pack. On Monday morning, ahead of the expected crossings of the finish line in the evening and overnight, the situation looked as follows: Ambrogio Beccaria (“Allagrande Mapei”) was in third place, some 30 nautical miles behind Bonafous. Violette Dorange (“Initiatives Cœur”) follows ten nautical miles behind him. And 30 nautical miles behind her, Francesca Clapcich was in fifth place with “11th Hour Racing”. Élodie Bonafous will only be able to hold them all off for half a day if she has to stop for twelve hours. Click here for tracking the Vendée Arctique.
Meanwhile, Vendée-Arctique skipper Sam Goodchild no longer has the field under such tight control as he did for almost the entire race. The calm Bay of Biscay has caused the current compression in the field. Although the “Macif Santé Prévoyance” skipper still had a lead of more than 100 nautical miles after his fast run between Great Britain and Ireland, this has now shrunk to half that.
Now that she has been punished, he has less to fear from his first hunter, Élodie Bonafous. But even Ambrogio Beccaria (”Allagrande Mapei”) has now closed the gap on Goodchild again after opting for the outer route along the west coast of Ireland. However, even in light winds, it is likely to be difficult for the Italian to make up the 85-nautical-mile deficit to Goodchild between Monday morning and the finish line.
Goodchild’s final major challenge in the Vendée Arctique is now to defend his lead cleanly all the way to the finish line. This is because a vast area of light winds has spread out directly over the final stretch to Les Sables-d’Olonne, where the gaps have repeatedly narrowed recently, allowing the pursuers to make up valuable ground.
Some route projections recently gave Goodchild a narrow lead at the finish line of the Vendée Arctique off Les Sables-d’Olonne. Others paint a picture of a spectacular comeback in the final stages. ““Those who seemed completely out of reach not so long ago could very quickly be back in the running,” the frontrunner himself explained.
“It’s even possible that at some point we’ll all be within sight of one another.” Sam Goodchild
The 2025 IMOCA champion is faced with the question of how to defend a lead in a lull. His response, in the final hours of the Vendée Arctique, was philosophical: “Ultimately, you just have to accept what you cannot control.” It is a philosophy that extends far beyond his own situation. Behind him, all the solo sailors are preparing to play their final cards. Francesca Clapcich said: “This final sprint could offer everyone the chance to gain or lose places. Nothing has been decided yet.”
In this context, speed is no longer the main focus in the Vendée Arctique. What will matter most is keeping a clear head. And, in the wind lottery, a bit of luck too. The latest forecasts predicted that Sam Goodchild would cross the finish line on Monday evening (15 June) between 8.30 pm and 11.30 pm. The organisers gave the same time frame on Monday morning for Élodie Bonafous and Ambrogio Beccaria. However, this arrival time for Bonafous is only a theoretical estimate due to the time penalty she still has to serve. “Initiatives - Cœur” and “11th Hour Racing” are expected to arrive during the night leading into Tuesday.
As the soloists approach the finish line of the Vendée-Arctique, final preparations are underway in Les Sables-d’Olonne for the welcome ceremony. It will be the Charlie Dalin, who passed away on 11 June be dedicated to. We reported on that here.

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