New York Vendée: Malizia co-skipper Will Harris on Boris Herrmann's north option

What was already apparent this morning is now a certainty: Boris Herrmann is staying true to his course far to the north. And he is making rapid progress. He recently logged more than 20 knots over ground. However, this is not reflected in the ranking. Because he keeps a steep heading to the north-northeast, his speed in relation to the course to the finish (VMC, Velocity Made good on Course) of 8.3 knots is only half that of Charlie Dalin.

As a result, the Hamburg man is bleeding miles on his hottest competitor. This morning, Boris was still close to first place, but by the afternoon he was already 55 nautical miles behind. You have to see it as a very long-term investment that will only pay off in a few days if everything goes smoothly.

We asked Will Harris, who did his own routings in the morning, for his assessment.

Will, difficult to read this race. The unstable weather didn't really allow for a clear strategy at the beginning. Now there are essentially two possible routes, one in the north, one in the south, and Charlie Dalin sits right in between. How do you see it?

Will Harris: Yes, it's really, really interesting right now.

What do your calculations say? Who will be ahead in the end?

One thing is pretty clear: Boris and Charlie will finish miles ahead of the rest of the field. They already have a lead of 300, 350 nautical miles, and that will increase.

Which of the two has the better chances?

It's going to be tight. And it's still a long way off. At the moment, it looks like the first ones will arrive in Les Sables-d'Olonne around 9 June. There is therefore a relatively high degree of uncertainty for all routings.

Why the big north-south split between Boris Herrmann and Charlie Dalin?

Charlie has obviously opted for a safe option. By staying in the centre, he can in principle cover the entire group to the south. Boris would also have had this option, but he is relying on the strength of his boat, namely fast room sheet courses. And he can only find these above the direct course line, north of the area of high pressure that he will pass tonight or tomorrow. That means a lot more distance, but faster miles. At the moment, it looks like that will give him the win. But, as I said, it will be close.

Can you understand the decision?

Yes, I think he has thought it through and is now implementing it consistently. He knows that Charlie Dalin has the faster boat upwind. If he had stayed with him, he might have been beaten simply because of the small speed deficit at the cross. Instead, he takes a slightly bigger risk, leaves "Macif" and the rest of the fleet uncovered and has the chance to win the New York Vendée.

What do your routings say for the rest of the fleet?

Some calculations see the boats in the south positioned quite well towards the end of the race. But they still have a few transitions to master before then. And there is also a lot to be said in favour of Boris' strategy. He could find very fast conditions in the north. Nevertheless, he also has to get over the core of the high first, and if it shifts, he could run out of options, while Charlie has a free choice of where to put the cursor. Charlie could still drop off and head north as well if he wants to. We'll have to wait and see how the race develops.

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