New York Vendée: Doldrums, hail, squalls - the "50 Shades of Shit" in the North Atlantic
Although for some of our readers the water levels in the south of the republic are probably more exciting today than the status on the tracker of the current Transat: Don't miss this day, which we may classify as race-decisive in a week's time.
After the weather-related randomness of the opening phase, something like a strategy is gradually emerging, or rather two - or even three.
It is becoming increasingly clear that "Malizia" skipper Boris Herrmann has decided to continue investing consistently in his northern course. He is the only one who positioned himself so clearly two days ago. And despite the brief setback yesterday morning Central European Time, he is benefiting from this in two ways: through relatively good etmals and a shorter distance closer to the great circle course to Les Sables-d'Olonne.
What the tracker doesn't show: The conditions have been extremely rough recently and still are. This morning he informed his team that it was not even possible to "stand in the cockpit without holding on with both hands". In the meantime, he is sailing on the edge of a front which, in combination with the Gulf Stream, is producing a confused sea.
How clear is Boris Herrmann's lead on day four of the New York Vendée?
Boris' lead is extremely close: Charlie Dalin in second place was mathematically around 30 nautical miles behind him at 9am this morning, although he is a good 100 miles to the south and the trend is increasing. Measured from west to east, however, the "Macif" skipper has a lead of 20 nautical miles. Of course, both are far less relevant than the position in relation to the weather, whose forecasts have so far proven to be chronically unreliable - both in terms of strength and direction. And there is also little agreement between the models for the coming days.
Except for one: there are many indications that the second half of the New York Vendée will have a high proportion of upwind, at least near the direct course line. Yesterday Nico Lunven, in 3rd place with "Hocim - PRB", aptly described his astonishment as follows: "In the outward race (Red: the Transat CIC) we had expected a cross, but then found mainly reaching conditions. Now we should actually be sailing on a beam reach, in well-established systems, but instead we're shimmying from one front to the next and expecting wind from the front soon."
What strategies are the skippers pursuing all the way to Les Sables-d'Olonne?
Unlike Boris Herrmann on his "Malizia - Seaexplorer", who has received a lot of recognition for his race so far, the majority of the top 10 favour a wait-and-see strategy on an east or east-southeast course. Only Louis Burton and Benjamin Dutreux seem to have decided in favour of a southerly course.
The dilemma facing skippers is caused by the Azores High, which lies very far to the north, extends almost from Newfoundland to Ireland and only slowly retreats to the west over the course of the week. To a certain extent, it blocks the areas of low pressure that otherwise move from the east coast of Canada and the USA across the North Atlantic.
This means that the soloists will experience a predictably tough race. The latest projections see the first finish in a week's time at the earliest, possibly not until Tuesday 11 June. However, this forecast seems as uncertain as the outcome of the EU parliamentary elections.
Who is sailing below and who is sailing above their potential in the New York Vendée?
The current ranking shows just how unusual and unpredictable the New York Vendée is. Yannick Bestaven, who won the Vendée Globe in January 2021, is currently in 18th place, more than 260 nautical miles behind Boris Herrmann. Just four miles and one place ahead of him is "V & B" skipper Maxime Sorel, both top 10 candidates in terms of potential. They are trapped in the group of stragglers, which lies around 200 nautical miles astern in a west-east direction.
Violette Dorange, the youngest Imoca skipper in the race, is sailing at the front and is also the best-placed participant on a boat without foils. She is three places and almost 30 nautical miles ahead of Eric Bellion, who has not yet been able to make a mark with the latest non-foiler.
The British skipper Pip Hare on "Medallia", on the other hand, is performing strongly. She has systematically developed her boat, Louis Burton's former "Bureau Vallée", over the winter, trained hard and recently achieved the best elapsed time of all the top 10 skippers: almost 390 nautical miles. As a result, she has moved ahead of Sam Davies (12th) and Clarisse Crémer (10th) and is only just behind Justine Mettraux (8th), who is sailing strongly as expected.
