Volvo Ocean Race: Narrow escape from the witches' kitchen

The position furthest west has paid off for Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing and Team Brunel. They have pulled away from the rest of the field, further than any team has managed on this leg so far. At the position report at 9.00 am, Abu Dhabi was almost nine nautical miles ahead of Brunel, over 81 nautical miles behind followed Dongfeng, positioned in the centre, with Vestas Wind just behind, which is in the far east, over 170 nautical miles behind Abu Dhabi.

The race to the next waypoint, the Fernando de Noronha archipelago, will probably be between the western duo and the eastern soloist and could mean a preliminary decision for this leg. This is because Abu Dhabi, Brunel and Vestas Wind appear to be through the worst zone of the Doldrums, recently running at nine to ten knots, while the quartet in the centre only managed a maximum of five knots. Mapfre was already 120 nautical miles behind as the second-easternmost boat.

So the leading trio are stepping on the gas while the rest are still on the brakes. The lead is likely to accelerate. Because the further south a team is, the more wind the forecast shows. It is expected to shift from the current north-easterly to easterly direction to south-easterly by the waypoint. This could mean another advantage for Vestas Wind, because the Danish team could attack with half the wind to a beam reach, while for the duo in the west it would mean significantly more acute angles, a disadvantage in strong winds.

For the quartet in the centre, however, these are distant thoughts. The next few hours will show whether they will hopelessly lose touch with the leading trio.