Olympics: Can it get any more exciting? 470 showdown in the battle for an Olympic ticket

Germany's best 470 mixed crews have competed in 30 races so far in their national Olympic qualifiers. The World Championship at the end of February and beginning of March in the Bay of Palma, the Spanish classic Trofeo Princesa Sofía in the same area in April and the European Championship off Cannes, where only one race remains, have been mastered. The decision will be made on Sunday at the final showdown in Cannes.

The medal race and its course will decide whether the sailing couple Malte and Anastasiya Winkel (Schweriner Yacht-Club/Norddeutscher Regatta Verein) or Simon Diesch and Anna Markfort (Württembergischer Yacht-Club/Verein Seglerhaus am Wannsee) will win the Olympic ticket to Marseille. Simon Diesch and Anna Markfort will have to watch, as they missed out on a place in the European Championship final in 13th place after ten races in an extremely dull week of sailing. However, their hopes of reaching the Olympics have not yet been dashed.

Olympic elimination: "Victoria" vs. "Sunny"

Diesch/Markfort led the national elimination after two of the three pre-determined regattas with 34 points ahead of their training partners Malte and Anastasiya Winkel (29 points). After two strong fourth places at the World Championships and the Trofeo Princesa Sofía, Diesch/Markfort have now added a further eight points to their elimination account for 13th place at the European Championships in their 470 "Sunny". That makes 42 points.

Malte and Anastasiya Winkel, on the other hand, finished tenth in the European Championship medal race, just one point ahead of Japan's Tetsuya Isozaki/Fuyuka Morita as the only GER crew. In contrast to Diesch/Markfort, the "Wild 13", as the Winkels are known in the German Sailing Team, have thus created the opportunity to advance even further in the double scored final, make up for their deficit in the elimination and still decide the duel for the Olympic ticket in their favour.

This can happen if Malte and Anastasiya Winkel sail their 470 "Victoria" so well that their performance in the medal race moves them up to at least eighth place in the final European Championship rankings. This would earn the Winkels 13 points according to the DSV's internal points system. In addition to the 29 points already gained in the first two qualifying regattas, Malte and Anastasiya Winkel would then have 42 points - just like Diesch/Markfort. The possible equality of points would be resolved in favour of Winkel/Winkel. This is the rule of the internal DSV qualification.

In the event of a tie, Winkels are ahead

In the event that two or more crews have the same number of points after adding up the results of the three elimination regattas, point 1 of the tiebreaker list states that the tie will first be broken "according to the highest number of points in the DSV ranking in one of the above-mentioned events", meaning the World Championship, Trofeo and European Championship. Malte and Anastasiya Winkel achieved this "highest score" at the Trofeo Princesa Sofía in third place with 20 points. The fact that the medal races were cancelled both there and at the World Championships beforehand due to adverse winds is particularly painful under these circumstances for Simon Diesch and Anna Markfort, who came fourth twice.

If all the maths is too complicated for you, you can remember the following rule of thumb for Sunday's final: if Malte and Anastasiya Winkel finish the European Championships in eighth place or better after the medal race, the silver medallists of the 2023 Olympic test regatta can compete for Olympic medals in the Bay of Marseille this summer.

If the Winkels remain tenth after the medal race or can only move up one place to ninth, then Simon Diesch and Anna Markfort have both hands on the Olympic ticket to Marseille. The third scenario, which cannot be ruled out after a windless week, is that the medal race is cancelled, as it was at the World Championships and the Trofeo. Diesch/Markfort would benefit from this.

Déjà vu or breakthrough: GER crews highly motivated

There have also been highly exciting and brutally tough national Olympic competitions in the past, where suffering and joy were closely intertwined. Anna Markfort experienced this painfully in the last Olympic cycle. After outstanding performances, she and her cox Frederike Loewe were considered favourites in the battle for the Olympic ticket in the women's Olympic 470 dinghy. However, the duo were caught out at the end of the elimination round by the strong late starters Luise Wanser and Anastasiya Winkel, who sailed to sixth place at the Olympic Games in Enoshima.

While Anna Markfort "never wanted to experience such a defeat again", Anastasiya Winkel also has additional motivation to qualify for the Olympics for the second time in a row - this time in the new Olympic 470 mixed discipline alongside her husband and helmsman Malte Winkel. Her crew was hit by an overly harsh double disqualification at their 2021 Olympic premiere in Japan with Luise Wanser because their harness waistcoat was 200 grams too heavy.

Without this unusually drastic punishment, which was similarly imposed on other crews in the women's and men's field, Luise Wanser and Anastasiya Winkel could have won a medal at their first Olympic Games in Japan. Anastasiya Winkel would like the chance to do so again.

Under high pressure on the Olympic home straight

Last but not least, the European Championship showdown this Sunday (12 May) will also involve two German 470 coxswains whose two crews missed out on Olympic qualification three years ago. The medals were contested in 2021 in the 470 men's field off Enoshima without German participation. Both Malte Winkel and Simon Diesch would now like to make up for the missed qualification in their new mixed constellations.

To the regret of many observers, however, there can only be a happy ending for one of the two German world-class crews, because in sailing - unlike in other sports - only one boat or board per qualified nation is permitted. The luxury problem for the German Sailing Team: a crew with Olympic medal potential has to stay at home.

We know from the past that medal races can sometimes not take place ..." (Malte Winkel)

Not everyone involved in the high-pressure Olympic home straight wanted to comment on their difficult situation shortly before the European Championship medal race. Malte Winkel did and said: "First of all, we hope that we have enough wind to be able to sail a medal race at all. We know from the past that medal races can sometimes not take place ... But that's not in our hands. Of course we are preparing for it." As annoyed as Simon Diesch and Anna Markfort were about the cancelled medal races at the World Championships and Trofeo, they will be wishing for history to repeat itself on Sunday afternoon.

The Winkels, on the other hand, are hoping for a final according to plan. The announcement for this must be made no later than 4.30 pm. Malte Winkels' dream scenario in the pre-Olympic all-or-nothing situation: "To overtake the others, we have to sail a good medal race. Our best. Of course, we would prefer to be among the front runners. And we have to hope that the other crews in the final will also work out so that we can make up two places if possible. It's actually like any medal race where you start in tenth place: Run for it! Then really enjoy it again and preferably be happy after the finish line that you were able to deliver in the medal race."

Click here for the European Championship results.

The pictures from day 5 of the 470 Mixed European Championship with an overview of the crews in the medal final with Malte and Anastasiya Winkel: