One day before the showdown off Valencia, the bookmakers give America's Cup defender Alinghi a tiny advantage in the duel against challenger BMW Oracle Racing. In fact, the expert analyses point to a neck-and-neck race.
If you want to place your money on one of the two Cup teams at the online betting agency William Hill, you will have to forego great chances of winning shortly before the 33rd America's Cup duel. In the event of an Alinghi victory, bookmakers will only pay out 11 euros for a stake of 10 euros. If challenger BMW Oracle Racing wins, they will get 12.50 euros back for 10 euros. An advantage for the Swiss team, who could benefit from the forecast wind conditions on Monday.
The weather forecasts for the first of a maximum of three matches in the 33rd America's Cup on Sunday predicted mainly light winds, for which the Swiss catamaran "Alinghi 5" rather than the trimaran "USA" should be optimised. The news of the "Alinghi opening weather" quickly made the rounds in the America's Cup harbour of Valencia on Sunday. However, the teams themselves were noticeably reluctant to comment on the distribution of chances or even exaggerate their self-confidence. "The probability of us defending the Cup is about 50:50," said Alinghi's chief designer Rolf Vrolijk.
"If the winds are as light as predicted, Alinghi will win," predicts Stuart Alexander from the London Independent. James Boyd, on the other hand, an experienced Cup observer from the UK and editor of the online magazine "The Daily Sail", is backing the Americans: "If there's no break, then my money's on Oracle. If there is a break, then the odds are 50:50." ap correspondent Bernie Wilson from the USA is also backing his home team: "I believe more and more that Oracle will win. The wing is the key." Top photographer Carlo Borlenghi, on assignment for the Swiss, among others, admits with a smile: "I haven't the slightest idea who will win." Swiss journalist Lori Schüpbach says: "I would put my money on Alinghi because the team is better prepared." One reason for Schüpbach's vote: "The Swiss have already completed the two courses set for duels one and two on 8 and 10 February several times in training, BMW Oracle Racing allegedly hasn't even done them yet."
Alinghi's America's Cup victories one and two in 2003 and 2007 were also due to the fact that the team minimised risks in advance and did not opt for extreme design solutions. They still benefit from this reputation in public opinion today. Precisely because it is a duel on the fastest and most modern multihulls ever built, a small majority believes that the Swiss can handle the monstrous boats more safely. This is also due to the fact that opponent BMW Oracle is taking a risk by opting for a revolutionary carbon fibre wing instead of a conventional sail. Critics believe that the wing has not yet been tested enough. Others, however, claim that it could turn out to be a miracle weapon.
The teams of Swiss pharmaceutical billionaire Ernesto Bertarelli and US software giant Larry Ellison have invested up to half a billion euros in their dream of winning the world's oldest sports trophy. The 44-year-old Bertarelli won the silver jug for the first time in 2003 with a European team and defended it with Alinghi in 2007 off Valencia. Two-time America's Cup winner Jochen Schümann calls the duel against the Americans, which has now been enforced by a court judgement with the exclusion of other participants, "potentised madness".
The event budget for the 33rd edition of the Cup is just under eight million euros. Around 30 per cent of this will be invested in the organisation of the regatta and a further 20 per cent in film and television production. Two and a half years after the outbreak of an unprecedented court battle in 159 years of Cup history, the two rival teams will have a showdown on the water from 10.06 am on Monday. The races will be broadcast live and free of charge on the internet - wind and weather permitting. Most observers are prepared for waiting times. Because even if the winds are blowing favourably off the coast, it could be completely different far out, with storms or even calm conditions. In the first race alone, the course is 20 by 20 nautical miles - twice the size of the host city of Valencia.
The first course on Monday will take the teams over a course of 20 nautical miles - one up, one down. Rolf Vrolijk recalls: "The conditions will have a big influence on the result. After the first race, probably after the first few minutes, we will know who has the best side and who can win this duel."
The teams do not want to announce their crew lists until Monday morning. Alingi owner Bertarelli has already confirmed his place on board and even wants to alternate the helm of the "Alinghi 5" with Frenchman Loïck Peyron. Opponent Larry Ellison, on the other hand, waved off the idea with a weak excuse: "There is a weight limit and we have reached the limit. That's probably why I'm not on board for the first race. That's disappointing, but I certainly don't want to jeopardise our chances of winning this race." Three-time Cup winner Russell Coutts will probably also only watch the sea battle from the outside and not sail himself. The "USA" will be skippered by the 30-year-old Australian James Spithill. Nickname: Jimmy Spitfire.
The duel will be played in "best of three" mode. Whoever secures two victories wins the 33rd America's Cup. At least on the water, as judgements are still pending in court. The races are to be held on Monday, 10 and possibly 12 February if a deciding match becomes necessary at a possible 1:1 score. If there are cancellations due to adverse conditions, reserve days are planned until 25 February and beyond if necessary. The organisers' budget should last until 20 February. "If the duel goes beyond that," says manager Michel Hodara, "we'll have to think again."
Until then, however, the duel between the giants is in the spotlight. The fact that the America's Cup has retained its fascination despite all the court disputes is proven, among other things, by the more than 800 accredited press representatives from all over the world. The Cup may have derailed with its current duel of superlatives. It has lost many of its values in the shadow of the battle between two sailing superpowers. But its magic still works. If you want to follow the excitement at home, you can do so live and free of charge via the internet.
Tatjana Pokorny
Sports reporter
