In view of the Americans' impressive show of muscle on Tuesday, you almost wonder whether they might have stepped on the brake pedal in the first week. So impressive, so shocking and so demoralising for the New Zealanders was the speed of the US catamaran. Dean Barker, Ray Davies and their Kiwi crew thoroughly messed up the first start, conceded two penalties after three harmless but momentous collisions and started race 17 without a chance, which they consequently lost 27 seconds behind at the finish. So far, it was still an exciting match race with two catamarans on an equal footing. In this first race of the day, it still looked as if the Kiwis could hold their own against the Americans, if only they could finally win a start like they had done five days earlier.
This is exactly what Dean Barker did in the second race of the day. Although a protest by the New Zealanders in a tight situation before the start line was rejected because the jury did not recognise any infringement of the Americans' right of way, this time Barker's team narrowly won the breathless sprint to the first mark with the all-important inside position. In the sprint on the way to the buoy, the Americans, who had been pushed away, narrowly escaped a nosedive. Emirates Team New Zealand rounded the marker with a five-second lead and stormed towards marker two, audibly gasping for breath, which they reached with a seven-second advantage.
What happens on the course afterwards is a source of horror for Team New Zealand's fans around the world. Almost 1.5 million television viewers watch the drama live in New Zealand. Not counting the public viewing events in clubs, associations and public places in the small Pacific state. It is estimated that almost half of New Zealand's population of around 4.4 million people watched the race or heard reports.
The New Zealand crew is also visibly shocked after the race. The defenders had taken advantage of a tight situation on the outer right-hand side of the course, pushed the Kiwis, who were getting closer and closer to the imaginary course boundary, offside, undercut them after almost simultaneous turns and then simply pulled away. As if they had just discovered a hidden extra gear, Jimmy Spithill's crew on the US catamaran built up a lead of more than a kilometre over the "Aotearoa" as the race progressed. Spithill was not the only one to say later: "That was very, very impressive. This boat simply sails great." The US catamaran raced around the course like an aeroplane.
In various blogs, the upside-down balance of power has long led to conspiracy theories. At the press conference, Dean Barker even had to put up with the question of whether he was losing on purpose to make it exciting. A film director would not have been allowed to come up with such a scenario because it would have been too unrealistic. And yet six match points in a row have been defended. The Kiwis have hit reality almost unbearably hard after their high-flying start to the Cup tie. One thing is certain: The Cup comeback of the century is almost perfect. The tide has turned in this memorable duel, which was first dominated by one team and then the other. The American high-flyers are one win away from triumph. From the outside, it looks like they have turned their boat into a rocket within a week. No-one in the international betting shops is backing Emirates Team New Zealand any more. The superiority of the defenders is overwhelming.
Never before has Dean Barker, always so composed, calm and quiet, been seen so shaken as after this 18th race on Tuesday in San Francisco. Even before races 17 and 18, he had not won a race for five days. And he knew what everyone had seen: it doesn't matter how well or badly his Kiwis sail against this American boat. No matter how well or badly he starts. This American catamaran is simply too fast. After the debriefing with his crew on board, Barker stood alone in the stern for minutes, trying to grasp what had just happened. They had been so close with a total of seven match points in a row. And now? One match point remains. But the defenders now also have it.
Based on Tuesday's findings, a miracle would have to happen in Wednesday's showdown to give the Kiwis the jug. On the water, they appeared to have no chance in races 17 and 18. And they have less than 24 hours left until the showdown on Wednesday at 13.15 local time (22.15 German time).
New Zealand's leading daily newspaper, the "New Zealand Herald", reacted immediately on Tuesday to the dramatic defeat of its team, which even outshines the famous "All Blacks" in the favour of New Zealand sports fans, with the headline "The end for Team New Zealand?". New Zealand's government had contributed around 20 million euros to the team's budget of around 60 million euros in order to bring the America's Cup back to the land of the long white cloud as a relevant economic factor. Experts doubt that the team can be supported so generously by the state again and even suspect that Team New Zealand could break up after this 34th America's Cup. This would bring an era of success spanning almost two decades to an end. It would be tragic, because there is no doubt that New Zealand's sailors are still the most successful in the Cup business. It's just that not all of them compete for their national team.
First and foremost, the four-time New Zealand America's Cup winner Russell Coutts, who as CEO directs Oracle Team USA, which was so successful in the final sprint. The 51-year-old had already said before the duel: "There is enormous pressure on both teams, because it is a kind of fight for survival for both. For the loser, it could mean the end of the team." Nothing less is at stake on Wednesday in San Francisco Bay between Alcatraz and the Golden Gate Bridge. "It will be the most important day of all our lives," announced Jimmy Spithill, who also provided the understatement of the day: "I still think we're the underdogs." He even had to laugh at that himself. Dean Barker countered - whether simply brave or convinced: "We have absolute faith that we can win tomorrow." There are no longer many who share this conviction. Even if millions of New Zealanders and fans don't want to give up on the team of hearts in the David versus Goliath battle.
Tatjana Pokorny
Sports reporter
