More than 80 per cent of YACHT online readers believe that according to the survey The American team is already no longer believing in a comeback. If the defender doesn't manage a restart tonight, they will probably be right. If Oracle Team USA does not manage two wins, it will be almost impossible to win. The New Zealanders still need five wins, Oracle ten. Even every day that ends in a draw is a win for the New Zealanders, because every 1:1 preserves their lead.
How did this situation come about? In four of the five races so far, defender Oracle Team USA has been in the lead. However, the New Zealanders have won four of the five races. Something must be wrong. Team boss Russell Coutts thought so too and withdrew the boat from the second race on Tuesday. To regroup, it was said.
It was obvious that the cat had an upwind weakness. Some tactical errors were also obvious. Although it is always easy to look good as a tactician with a faster boat, the mistakes seemed inexplicable due to Kostecki's experience. He was quickly identified as the scapegoat. He was not up to the speed of the catamarans and thus the speed of the necessary decisions, according to some experts.
America's Cup veteran and commentator Gary Jobson, on the other hand, has found a very plausible explanation. And it has to do with technology.
The New Zealanders' boat has a self-tacking jib, while the foresail of the American boat has to be tacked and jibed by hand. This keeps a trimmer busy during the manoeuvre. On the New Zealanders, on the other hand, this can be used as a fully-fledged grinder that pressurises the hydraulic systems. The New Zealanders therefore have four real grinders.
There are only three of them on the American boat, so the tactician has to get involved. Kostecki was constantly busy driving a grinder aft, in addition to his tactical tasks. His counterpart Ray Davies, on the other hand, was able to concentrate fully on observing the area, gusts, current edges and the opponent - an advantage that should not be underestimated, especially at the high speeds of the cats. Especially as Kostecki, at the age of 49, is no longer able to cope with the high physical demands of these boats.
This theory is supported by the fact that the Oracle team trained on Wednesday, the rest day, with the Brit Ben Ainslie in the tactician position. He is the most experienced Olympic sailor of all and, as a Finn dinghy sternman, is used to physical toil coupled with high mental demands.
We will see whether Ainslie will be on board tonight. Much more important, however, is the question of whether the team designers can make up for the speed disadvantage. Otherwise, next night is likely to be the preliminary decision in the 34th America's Cup.
The broadcast starts at 10.00 pm and can be be followed here.
Lars Bolle
Chief Editor Digital
