In the America's Cup, it's as simple as in almost any other regatta: the fastest boat has the best chance of winning. Although speed is no guarantee of victory, a slow boat has rarely won and then only by luck.
So the question is who has the faster boat, challenger Luna Rossa or defender Team New Zealand. They will meet for the first time in the America's Cup final next night, or rather early in the morning at 4.15 am. Although there have already been encounters in the Christmas Race before Christmas, a lot has happened since then.
Luna Rossa had to fight its way through the elimination of the challengers, the Prada Cup, and finally defeated the British in the final. This superiority leads many Cup observers to assume that the Italians are strong in light winds of up to around ten knots. "I think the New Zealanders have become nervous," says designer Rolf Vrolijk, who advised the British team.
Naturally, however, the New Zealanders do not want to admit to such alleged weaknesses. At the final press conference, helmsman Peter Burling said: "There are many conditions in which I am relatively confident that we have a faster boat." Asked specifically about the Italians' light wind strength, the 30-year-old replied: "There are obviously a lot of conditions where Luna Rossa proved to be very strong, especially against some of the other challengers. But a lot of them have been areas where we've made some pretty big strides in the last couple of years. It's been a pretty good period of development for us as a team, we're really looking forward to getting into that first race."
However, the other side also refused to reveal their cards. "We don't know much about the actual speed of the boats, we can only guess," said Patrizio Bertelli, head of the Italian syndicate. "A lot will depend on the wind conditions, wind shifts and the like. You can never be completely sure in a final."
However, there is much to be said in favour of New Zealand's superiority. The bookmakers also see it that way at the moment. At betting provider Betfair, for example, 100 euros on New Zealand to win will get you 137 euros back; if you bet 100 euros on the Italians, on the other hand, you will get 240 euros back.
How strong are the New Zealanders?
The New Zealanders have perfected foil sailing and the way in which it is developed. They recently dropped the curtain on their research department and unveiled their sailing robot, a kind of artificial intelligence that supposedly shortened the test cycles for changes to the material or manoeuvre sequences from days to hours, making more test series possible.
Team New Zealand present the AI bot
The size of the New Zealanders' foils also speaks in favour of a technological advantage in foil development and double membrane sails. Their main foils are around 20 per cent smaller than those of the Italians, and the so-called elevator, the T-foil on the rudder blade, is also smaller. The smaller the foil, the less drag it creates, which becomes increasingly important the faster the boats sail. However, it is more difficult to take off with a small foil, as the smaller surface area usually means that less lift can be generated at low speeds.
Apparently, however, the New Zealanders manage to generate enough pressure with the double membrane sail, even at low speed, to take off. This usually requires a deep, bulbous profile in the sail. It is not difficult to produce this, it is more a question of being able to set the profile flat immediately after take-off. This is because much less profile is then required, whereas a deep sail has more resistance. Being able to make these adjustments quickly and smoothly is the great art of this new type of sail design.
Peter Burling's strengths also lie in his ability to sail the boat fast. Together with Blair Tuke, who trims the foils, Burling is world champion and Olympic champion in the 49er, and both have been the clearly dominant team in recent years. With their experience in this high-speed skiff class, both are very familiar with speed sailing, having learnt it from scratch in their youth. Spithill and Bruni with the Italians, on the other hand, are not; they come more from classic sailing. Burling will therefore in all likelihood try to stay out of any duel situations at the start. After all, if the New Zealanders are ahead in the first encounter upwind, the so-called first cross, it will be almost impossible to catch them.
How strong are the Italians?
The Italians' best chances are likely to be in light winds and they will have to look for their advantage at the start. If they manage to control the New Zealanders at the start, it could be difficult for them to pass. This was demonstrated by the races in the Prada Cup final against the British. The helmsman duo Jimmy Spithill (Australia) and Francesco Bruni (Italy) often managed to dupe their counterpart Ben Ainslie on the British boat at the start. The Brits were almost never able to free themselves from control afterwards. The narrow courses of this cup with their limitations also contributed to this. They force three to four tacks per cross, so a team can only utilise a speed advantage to a limited extent because it is not possible to simply sail away from the opponent on a long beat - which is also one of the reasons for this course design. Spithill is regarded as an excellent starter and a very unpleasant opponent in tight tacking and gybing duels, and Bruni is also a very experienced match racer. It would be very surprising if they didn't try to put the New Zealanders under pressure, especially at the start.
Where can you watch the races?
Both teams therefore seem to have a chance of beating the other. Let's hope that they both make the most of them in terms of exciting and as many races as possible. A team needs seven wins to win the America's Cup. The teams will sail against each other twice on Wednesday, with winds of between 12 and 17 knots forecast. After a rest day, two races will be held every day from Friday onwards. If there are no further postponements due to too much or too little wind or another increased corona warning level, the winner could be decided as early as Sunday, but no later than Wednesday next week.
All races will be broadcast live free of charge and can be viewed on the Cup website , on Youtube and Facebook to track. No extra app is required for mobile devices. Replays will be made available on these channels immediately after the end of each race.
Lars Bolle
Chief Editor Digital
